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CMIP5 Cyclone Intensities
All plots show:
Maximum intensity distributions based on T42 filtered 850-hPa relative vorticity (ξ850), and full-resolution mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and 850-hPa winds, for all seasons and both hemispheres. MSLP and 850-hPa winds referenced to ξ850 tracks. Values are number per month for the period 1986-2005 for the Historical experiments and ERA-Interim reanalysis and for 2081-2100 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments. Bin widths are 10 hPa for MSLP, 5 ms-1 for winds, and 1×10-5 s-1 for vorticity; SH vorticity is scaled by -1.
For a full description of the method* used to reference the maximum intensity distributions to the cyclones see: Hodges, K. I., R. W. Lee, L. Bengtsson, 2011: A Comparison of Extratropical Cyclones in Recent Reanalyses ERA-Interim, NASA MERRA, NCEP CFSR, and JRA-25. J. Climate, 24, 4888-4906. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4097.1.
(* note: differences from this method are: here T42 relative vorticity distributions are shown rather than full resolution vorticity, so as the results are not biased by differing model resolution; and, full resolution winds are at 850-hPa here rather than 925-hPa as in Hodges et al. 2011.)
Data can be made available in other formats upon request.
ERA-Interim, Historical and RCP Scenarios comparison
The 29 models included in the table below are: ACCESS1-0, ACCESS1-3, bcc-csm1-1, bcc-csm1-1-m, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, CCSM4, CMCC-CM, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, EC-EARTH, FGOALS-g2, FGOALS-s2, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, inmcm4, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5B-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-MR, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M.
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_NH_DJF_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_NH_DJF_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_NH_DJF_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_NH_MAM_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_NH_MAM_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_NH_MAM_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_NH_JJA_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_NH_JJA_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_NH_JJA_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_NH_SON_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_NH_SON_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_NH_SON_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_SH_DJF_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_SH_DJF_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_SH_DJF_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_SH_MAM_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_SH_MAM_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_SH_MAM_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_SH_JJA_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_SH_JJA_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_SH_JJA_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_SH_SON_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_SH_SON_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_rcp45_rcp85_all_1986-2005_SH_SON_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_NH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_NH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_NH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_NH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_NH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_NH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_NH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_NH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_NH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_NH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_NH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_NH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_SH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_SH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_SH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_SH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_SH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_SH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_SH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_SH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_SH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_SH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_SH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_ERA-Interim_all_1986-2005_SH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_rcp45_all_2081-2100_NH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_rcp45_all_2081-2100_NH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_rcp45_all_2081-2100_NH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_rcp45_all_2081-2100_NH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_rcp45_all_2081-2100_NH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_rcp45_all_2081-2100_NH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_rcp45_all_2081-2100_NH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_rcp45_all_2081-2100_NH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_rcp45_all_2081-2100_NH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_rcp45_all_2081-2100_NH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_rcp45_all_2081-2100_NH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_rcp45_all_2081-2100_NH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_rcp45_all_2081-2100_SH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_rcp45_all_2081-2100_SH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_rcp45_all_2081-2100_SH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_rcp45_all_2081-2100_SH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_rcp45_all_2081-2100_SH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_rcp45_all_2081-2100_SH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_rcp45_all_2081-2100_SH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_rcp45_all_2081-2100_SH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_rcp45_all_2081-2100_SH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_rcp45_all_2081-2100_SH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_rcp45_all_2081-2100_SH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_rcp45_all_2081-2100_SH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_rcp85_all_2081-2100_NH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_rcp85_all_2081-2100_NH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_rcp85_all_2081-2100_NH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_rcp85_all_2081-2100_NH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_rcp85_all_2081-2100_NH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_rcp85_all_2081-2100_NH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_rcp85_all_2081-2100_NH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_rcp85_all_2081-2100_NH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_rcp85_all_2081-2100_NH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_rcp85_all_2081-2100_NH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_rcp85_all_2081-2100_NH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_rcp85_all_2081-2100_NH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_rcp85_all_2081-2100_SH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_rcp85_all_2081-2100_SH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_rcp85_all_2081-2100_SH_DJF.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_rcp85_all_2081-2100_SH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_rcp85_all_2081-2100_SH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_rcp85_all_2081-2100_SH_MAM.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_rcp85_all_2081-2100_SH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_rcp85_all_2081-2100_SH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_rcp85_all_2081-2100_SH_JJA.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_rcp85_all_2081-2100_SH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_rcp85_all_2081-2100_SH_SON.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_rcp85_all_2081-2100_SH_SON.png){kind=link}
ERA-Interim, Historical and AMIP comparison
Plots as above however only the AMIP subselection of 22 models are included. These 22 models are: ACCESS1-0, ACCESS1-3, bcc-csm1-1, bcc-csm1-1-m, BNU-ESM, CCSM4, CMCC-CM, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, EC-EARTH, FGOALS-g2, FGOALS-s2, HadGEM2-A/HadGEM2-ES, inmcm4, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5B-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-MR, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M.
| PLOT | HEMI & SEASON | VARIABLE & NUMBER OF MODELS | ||
| T42 Vorticity | Sea Level Pressure | 850hPa Wind Speed | ||
| 22 | 21 (no BNU-ESM) |
22 | ||
| Historical, AMIP: Multi-model mean and standard deviation; ERA-Interim | NH DJF | [pdf] [png] | [pdf] [png] | [pdf] [png] |
| NH MAM | [pdf] [png] | [pdf] [png] | [pdf] [png] | |
| NH JJA | [pdf] [png] | [pdf] [png] | [pdf] [png] | |
| NH SON | [pdf] [png] | [pdf] [png] | [pdf] [png] | |
| SH DJF | [pdf] [png] | [pdf] [png] | [pdf] [png] | |
| SH MAM | [pdf] [png] | [pdf] [png] | [pdf] [png] | |
| SH JJA | [pdf] [png] | [pdf] [png] | [pdf] [png] | |
| SH SON | [pdf] [png] | [pdf] [png] | [pdf] [png] | |
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_NH_DJF_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_NH_DJF_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_NH_DJF_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_NH_MAM_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_NH_MAM_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_NH_MAM_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_NH_JJA_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_NH_JJA_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_NH_JJA_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_NH_SON_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_NH_SON_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_NH_SON_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_SH_DJF_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_SH_DJF_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_SH_DJF_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_SH_MAM_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_SH_MAM_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_SH_MAM_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_SH_JJA_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_SH_JJA_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_SH_JJA_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/vorT42_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_SH_SON_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/psl_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_SH_SON_stddev.png){kind=link}
![[png]](intensities/wind850_historical_amip_all_1986-2005_SH_SON_stddev.png){kind=link}