CMIP5 RCP Scenarios

This page shows plots of the differences between the end of the late 21st and 20th centuries in the CMIP5 models based on the Historical and Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP) experiments.

For more information on the experimental design and setup, please see the official CMIP5 guide.

Data can be made available in other formats upon request.

Track density plots - Multi-model Mean (ERA-Interim, Historical, RCP 4.5 & 8.5)

All plots show:

850hPa relative vorticity extratropical cyclone track densities from the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1986-2005; row 1), and CMIP5 29 member multi-model means for the experiments: historical (1986-2005; row 2), RCP 4.5 (2081-2100; row 3) and RCP 8.5 (2081-2100; row 4). Densities are in units of number density per month per unit area where the unit area is equivalent to a 5° spherical cap (~ 10⁶ km²).

Winter season: (a, c, e & g) NH DJF, and (b, d, f & h) SH JJA. [pdf] [eps] [png]

Spring season: (a, c, e & g) NH MAM, and (b, d, f & h) SH SON. [pdf] [eps] [png]

Summer season: (a, c, e & g) NH JJA, and (b, d, f & h) SH DJF. [pdf] [eps] [png]

Autumn season: (a, c, e & g) NH SON, and (b, d, f & h) SH MAM. [pdf] [eps] [png]

* Note the 29 models which comprise these figures are listed and plotted individually below.

** Also note the separate colour scales between the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere in all the above figures.

Track density difference plots - Multi-model Mean (RCP 4.5 & 8.5)

All plots show:

Difference in 850hPa relative vorticity extratropical cyclone track densities between late 21st and 20th centuries in the multi-model mean for each named season: (left) 29 member multi-model mean RCP 4.5 (2081-2100) – Historical Control (1986-2005); and (right) 29 member multi-model mean RCP 8.5 (2081-2100) – Historical Control (1986-2005). Densities are in units of number density per month per unit area where the unit area is equivalent to a 5° spherical cap (~ 10⁶ km²).

Winter season: (a & b) NH DJF, and (c & d) SH JJA. [pdf] [eps] [png]

Spring season: (a & b) NH MAM, and (c & d) SH SON. [pdf] [eps] [png]

Summer season: (a & b) NH JJA, and (c & d) SH DJF. [pdf] [eps] [png]

Autumn season: (a & b) NH SON, and (c & d) SH MAM. [pdf] [eps] [png]

* Note the 29 models which comprise these figures are listed and plotted individually below.

Track density difference plots - Individual models

All plots show:

Difference in 850hPa relative vorticity extratropical cyclone track densities as RCPX.X (2081-2100) – Historical Control (1986-2005) for the all seasons: (a) NH DJF, (b) SH, DJF, (c) NH MAM, (d) SH MAM, (e) NH JJA, (f) SH JJA, (g) NH SON, and (h) SH SON. Densities are in units of number density per month per unit area where the unit area is equivalent to a 5° spherical cap (~ 10⁶ km²).

RCP 4.5

INSTITUTE	MODEL	ENSEMBLE SIZE		LINKS
		RCP 4.5	HISTORICAL
BCC	BCC-CSM1.1	1	3	[pdf] [png]
	BCC-CSM1.1(m)	1	3	[pdf] [png]
BNU	BNU-ESM	1	1	[pdf] [png]
CCCMA	CanESM2	1	5	[pdf] [png]
CMCC	CMCC-CM	1	1	[pdf] [png]
CNRM-CERFACS	CNRM-CM5	1	10	[pdf] [png]
CSIRO-BOM	ACCESS1.0	1	1	[pdf] [png]
	ACCESS1.3	1	1	[pdf] [png]
CSIRO-QCCCE	CSIRO-Mk3.6.0	10	10	[pdf] [png]
ICHEC	EC-EARTH	1	2	[pdf] [png]
INM	INMCM4	1	1	[pdf] [png]
IPSL	IPSL-CM5A-LR	4	4	[pdf] [png]
	IPSL-CM5A-MR	1	2	[pdf] [png]
	IPSL-CM5B-LR	1	1	[pdf] [png]
LASG-CESS	FGOALS-g2	1	1	[pdf] [png]
LASG-IAP	FGOALS-s2	3	3	[pdf] [png]
MIROC	MIROC5	3	4	[pdf] [png]
	MIROC-ESM	1	3	[pdf] [png]
	MIROC-ESM-CHEM	1	1	[pdf] [png]
MOHC	HadGEM2-CC	1	2	[pdf] [png]
	HadGEM2-ES	1	1	[pdf] [png]
MPI-M	MPI-ESM-LR	3	3	[pdf] [png]
	MPI-ESM-MR	1	3	[pdf] [png]
MRI	MRI-CGCM3	1	5	[pdf] [png]
NCAR	CCSM4	1	1	[pdf] [png]
NCC	NorESM1-M	1	3	[pdf] [png]
NOAA-GFDL	GFDL-CM3	5	3	[pdf] [png]
	GFDL-ESM2G	1	1	[pdf] [png]
	GFDL-ESM2	1	1	[pdf] [png]

RCP 8.5

INSTITUTE	MODEL	ENSEMBLE SIZE		LINKS
		RCP 8.5	HISTORICAL
BCC	BCC-CSM1.1	1	3	[pdf] [png]
	BCC-CSM1.1(m)	1	3	[pdf] [png]
BNU	BNU-ESM	1	1	[pdf] [png]
CCCMA	CanESM2	1	5	[pdf] [png]
CMCC	CMCC-CM	1	1	[pdf] [png]
CNRM-CERFACS	CNRM-CM5	1	10	[pdf] [png]
CSIRO-BOM	ACCESS1.0	1	1	[pdf] [png]
	ACCESS1.3	1	1	[pdf] [png]
CSIRO-QCCCE	CSIRO-Mk3.6.0	10	10	[pdf] [png]
ICHEC	EC-EARTH	1	3	[pdf] [png]
INM	INMCM4	1	1	[pdf] [png]
IPSL	IPSL-CM5A-LR	4	4	[pdf] [png]
	IPSL-CM5A-MR	1	2	[pdf] [png]
	IPSL-CM5B-LR	1	1	[pdf] [png]
LASG-CESS	FGOALS-g2	1	1	[pdf] [png]
LASG-IAP	FGOALS-s2	3	3	[pdf] [png]
MIROC	MIROC5	3	4	[pdf] [png]
	MIROC-ESM	1	3	[pdf] [png]
	MIROC-ESM-CHEM	1	1	[pdf] [png]
MOHC	HadGEM2-CC	2	2	[pdf] [png]
	HadGEM2-ES	1	1	[pdf] [png]
MPI-M	MPI-ESM-LR	3	3	[pdf] [png]
	MPI-ESM-MR	1	3	[pdf] [png]
MRI	MRI-CGCM3	1	5	[pdf] [png]
NCAR	CCSM4	1	1	[pdf] [png]
NCC	NorESM1-M	1	3	[pdf] [png]
NOAA-GFDL	GFDL-CM3	5	1	[pdf] [png]
	GFDL-ESM2G	1	1	[pdf] [png]
	GFDL-ESM2	1	1	[pdf] [png]