IPCC AR5 Chapter 12 multi-model mean figures

This page shows plots of the differences between the end of the late 21st and 20th centuries in the CMIP5 models based on the Historical and Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP) experiments, as well as the raw track densities that go into making these difference plots.

IPCC - Fifth Assessment Report - Working Group 1:

Climate Change 2013, Chapter 12 - Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility (Contributing author). Section 12.4.4.3, pp 1074-1075, including Fig. 12-20

Track density plots – Multi-model Mean (ERA-Interim, Historical, RCP 4.5 & 8.5)

All plots show:

850hPa relative vorticity extratropical cyclone track densities from the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1986-2005; row 1), and CMIP5 29 member multi-model means for the experiments: historical (1986-2005; row 2), RCP 4.5 (2081-2100; row 3) and RCP 8.5 (2081-2100; row 4). Densities are in units of number density per month per unit area where the unit area is equivalent to a 5° spherical cap (~ 10⁶ km²).

Winter season: (a, c, e & g) NH DJF, and (b, d, f & h) SH JJA. [pdf] [eps] [png]

Spring season: (a, c, e & g) NH MAM, and (b, d, f & h) SH SON. [pdf] [eps] [png]

Summer season: (a, c, e & g) NH JJA, and (b, d, f & h) SH DJF. [pdf] [eps] [png]

Autumn season: (a, c, e & g) NH SON, and (b, d, f & h) SH MAM. [pdf] [eps] [png]

* Note the separate colour scales between the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere in all the above figures.

Track density difference plots – Multi-model Mean (RCP 4.5 & 8.5)

All plots show:

Difference in 850hPa relative vorticity extratropical cyclone track densities between late 21st and 20th centuries in the multi-model mean for each named season: (left) 29 member multi-model mean RCP4.5 (2081-2100) – Historical Control (1986-2005); and (right) 29 member multi-model mean RCP8.5 (2081-2100) – Historical Control (1986-2005). Densities are in units of number density per month per unit area where the unit area is equivalent to a 5° spherical cap (~ 10⁶ km²). Stippling shows where at least 90% of models have the same sign of change as the multi-model mean.

Winter season: (a & b) NH DJF, and (c & d) SH JJA. [pdf] [eps] [png]

Spring season: (a & b) NH MAM, and (c & d) SH SON. [pdf] [eps] [png]

Summer season: (a & b) NH JJA, and (c & d) SH DJF. [pdf] [eps] [png]

Autumn season: (a & b) NH SON, and (c & d) SH MAM. [pdf] [eps] [png]