Latest News - Richard P. Allan

News from the department

My latest news

Recent blog articles

Latest tweets (below)

Latest CO2 concentrations and growth rates



Here is a list of some of my latest news.

7th March 2024 - record February warmth in the Copernicus data (SMC, Al Jazeera, Express & Star, University of Reading)

19th February - comments on dying El Niño in The Mirror

14th February 2024 - comments on new Nature paper on Amazon tipping point (CNN and elsewhere)

8th February 2024 - First time 12 months have been more than 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels based on Copernicus data (press release, also Radio Berks, LBC)

5th February 2024 - SMC comment on new sponge skeletal record suggesting a surprising early industrial warming (also Newsweek)

19th January 2024 - SMC comments on study highlighting cost to economies of sea level rise


15th December 2023 - Coverage of the UAE COP28 outcome (SMC; Forbes; BBC live coverage; Pharmaceutical Technology)

14th December 2023 - IPCC recipient of Council of Europe 2022 North South Prize

17th November 2023 was the first modern day to breach 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperature (CNN)

14th November 2023 - what happens when we reach net zero? SMC comment on new paper assessing implications of zero emissions commitment

8th November 2023 - Record October warmth means 2023 certain to be warmest year in the observational record (SMC; Guardian; University release; Arab News)

5th September 2023 - Comments about record September 2023 global temperatures on iNews and The Times (see also University of Reading press release)

4th September 2023 - France24 interview on the link between climate change and extreme weather events in 2023 including the recent flooding that affected Spain and the Burning Man festival in the USA

27th July 2023 - new research published in Environmental Research Letters shows greater range between wet and dry periods as Earth warms (Physics.org, NCEO blog, Research Reading Blog)

25th July 2023 - comments to CNN on rapid attribution of 2023 heatwaves to human caused climate change (also BBC News Channel "The Context")

15th July 2023 - Interview with Al Jazeera on heatwaves (also SMC, Daily Mail, inews, Int. Business Times plus also Tom Clarke at Sky and TRT World)

11th July 2023 - comments on Japan flooding (CNN and elsewhere)

10th July 2023 - Emerging climate change over Europe in work led by Albert Osso and Philip Criag as a last contribution from the INDECIS project published in Int. J. Climatology showing simulations that are too cool tend to warm faster and those with wetter soils dry more

8th July 2023 - interview on BBC Radio 5 Live Breakfast Show on hottest day globally in recorded history (also BBC Radio Foyle and BBC Radio Ulster)

19th June 2023 - Comments on State of European Climate 2022 report in SMC

8th June 2023 - El Niño is declared: interviews on BBC World Service and Radio 4 (also Financial Times, Telegraph and France24)

18th May 2023 - comment on effect of developing El Nino and the chances of breaching 1.5oC abover pre-industrial global surface temperature in the next five years (An inevitable climate breach?)

20th April 2023 - Copernicus State of the European Climate 2022 (New Scientist; Nutrition Insights; France24; SMC)

17th April 2023 - Latest assessment of Earth's heat budget led by Karina von Shuckmann published in ESSD (see also NCEO blog)

20th March 2023 - Release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Synthesis Report with comments at SMC and Guardian

28th January 2023 - Comment on CNN article highlighting new review on deterioration of existing, uncleared forest in the Amazon

5th January 2023 - Guardian and SMC quote on Met Office story on record UK temperatures in 2022 (see also CNN article)

20th December 2022 - BBC quote on Met Office forecast of renewed warming in 2023

14th December 2022 - Quoted in New Scientist article on drought and Europe's energy system

7th December 2022 - Interview on the science behind human-caused climate change and net zero as part of the Electric Evolution podcast series

22nd November 2022 - Reading Climate Fayre helping local organisations address the impact of climate change

7 November 2022 - Guardian article on rapidly emerging climate impacts ahead of COP27

2 November 2022 - SMC quote on Copernicus Climate report showing rapid warming in Europe

31st October 2022 - Where is the heat going during La Nina? NOAA climate.gov blog

16th October 2022 - worsening floods & droughts with every bit of global warming (Scotsman, also research.reading blog)

13th October - IPCC joint winner of Gulbenkian prize for humanity (certificate)

9th Aug 2022 - developing drought in the UK (SMC; see also University of Reading research news) quoted by ITV News (online), IndependentDaily MailEvening StandardAol.The National NewsYahoo!, Western Mail (in print), Oxford MailDaily EchoThe NationalBelfast TelegraphThe Bolton NewsThe StandardNews and StarThe PressGlasgow TimesNews Break  Sky News online,  ExpressDaily MailYahoo!Heart Radio online, Smooth Radio online, Capital FM Radio online, MSNThe Washington Times, News Amed, Daily Star PostThe One World News, Eminetra, Arab News 24 and more than a hundred other outlets on the impact of climate change on the intensity of droughts.

11th July 2022 - heatwave in the UK and western/southern Europe (SMC, ABC radio news, Yahoo UK, Guardian, Times, i-news, Mail, CNBC, BBC News)

19th May 2022 - Science Media Centre comments on WMO State of the Global Climate 2021 report (Irish Times)

16th May 2022 - Two new studies on drought across Europe (Water Resources Research) and in the Nile Basin (Scientific Reports)

7th March 2022 - SMC comments on Amazon tipping points paper (see also CNN article)

4th March 2022 - Comments on storms and climate change in Bloomberg Westminster report

18th February 2022 - SMC comments and New Statesman article on Storm Eunice and climate change (also ITV news, Guardian, LBC, etc)

16th February 2022 - France 24 interview on climate change and energy policy

10th January 2022 - SMC comment on Copernicus report of ongoing global warming highlighting impacts in 2021 and surging methane concentrations

1st December 2021 - comment on research showing a faster increase in precipitation and transition from snow to rain in the Arctic (SMC, Guardian)

14th November 2021 - Outcome of the COP26 climate meeting (SMC; earlier articles in Guardian and Daily Mirror)

1st November 2021: RMetS video on How and why the climate is changing to showcase the new RMetS book Weather - a force of nature

4th October 2021: University of Reading podcast Climate Change: Providing the Science for Politicians

9th September 2021 - Longer dry spells and later wet seasons projected for tropical regions (research in J. HydroMet. and press release; see also SA Business Insider)

1st September 2021 - interview with BBC Scotland about WMO report on weather-related disasters since the 1970s and link to climate change (also Al Jazeera Inside Story)

9th August 2021 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th assessment report on the physical science basis released (as an author I also contributed to the SMC briefing, BBC 5Live, BBC World Service, Guardian, Al Jazeera/Inside Story, Washington Post, ITV, etc...)

29th July 2021 - State of the UK Climate report (Science Media Centre, Sky News, Guardian)

21st July 2021 - extreme rainfall and flooding over Europe and the challenge of simulating fine detail impacts (CNN, GB news, SMC & The Times)

5th July 2021 - Comments on North American heatwave - Science Media Centre

27th May 2021 - SMC quote on Met Office Met Office predictions the planet may cross 1.5oC warming threshold in one of the next 5 years (also interviewd on BBC World News and News 24)

30th April 2021 - interview will NOVA radio on new government emissions cut targets and the recent UN report on the state of the climate

19th April 2021 - comments on WMO state of the climate report to SMC, Guardian and Independent

April 2021 - interviewd by BBC Weather World on extreme precipitation

9th September 2020 - contribution to Physics World article asking: Has the COVID-19 lockdown changed Earth’s climate?

20th August 2020 - Independent article reports lowest expected wheat yields in 40 years

12th August 2020 - State of the climate 2019 and comment at SMC

31st July 2020 - Comments on State of UK climate report in Independent and SMC

9th July 2020 - Comments on climate mitigation to Wall Street Journal and Science Media Centre

8th July 2020 - New paper led by Matthew Menary on changes in the Atlantic ocean circulation published by Geophysical Research Letters

  • 13th May 2020: contributed to Guardian article and blog on how reduced air pollution, as experienced during the COVID19 lockdowns, can increase sunlight reaching the surface, influencing weather and climate (see also comment in Newsweek article)

  • 6th April 2020: New #openaccess review on understanding drivers of water cycle response to climate change in Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

  • 2nd April 2020: Comments on postponement of Glasgow COP26 climate meeting

  • 13th March 2020: Ask Me Anything on Climate panel and twitter schools event

  • March 5th 2020: Meteorology Department research examining observations and simulations shows how cutting particle pollution can increase sunlight at the surface and temporarily speed up climate change (Mail Online article and press release)

  • February 18th 2020: New work in Geophyiscal research Letters shows computer simulations capture but in some cases underestimate amplification of climate response by low clouds during the 2015/16 El Nino

  • February 21st 2020: quoted in Telegraph article on role of Atmospheric Rivers in recent UK flooding

  • February 17th 2020: Guardian Live Climate panel discussion

  • Air pollution may affect atmospheric heating more than thought based on new Nature Geoscience study over Europe & China with implications for the hydrological cycle and climate change (see also blog by lead author)

  • January 14th 2020: France 24 debate about Australian bushfires and climate change

  • December 15th 2019: BBC World Service interview on the outcome of COP25 climate meeting on climate policy

  • December 3rd 2019: SMC comments on WMO Provisional Statement on State of Climate in 2019 (e.g. Associated Press)

  • September 17th 2019: comments ahead of the New York UN Climate Action Summit

  • August 1st 2019: Is July 2019 the hottest month globally ever recorded? SMC quote picked up by Evening Standard and many regional news outlets

  • July 26th 2019: Discussing the July 2019 heatwave, LBC radio and The Telegraph/SMC

  • July 13th 2019: Interview with New Scientist about amplifying cloud climate feedback study (also reported in Earth.com) and on Talk Radio on if London's climate will become like Barcelona by 2050


  • December 13th 2018: projected changes in the timing and strength of the wet season over Africa will lead to climate impacts (see paper & blog)
  • 14th September 2018: Interviewed by BBC News and Express online about Hurricane Florence and super Typhoon Mangkhut
  • New publication in Nature Communications tracing biases in climate simulations affecting the Southern Ocean to initial errors in cloud that modify the location of the "roaring 40s" winds and offer a route to improve climate model simulations (see also summary)
  • August 7th 2018: Interview about Hothouse Earth PNAS paper on BBC News
  • July 28th 2018: Sky News interview on heatwave, flooding and climate change (apparently presented while flying a helecopter, see right!)
  • April 17th 2018: Lead authors for upcoming IPCC climate change assessment announced (also interview on Thames Valley TV)
  • January 18th 2018: New study improves confidence in climate predictions, comments in Guardian and on BBC in relation to record non-El Nino warmth in 2017 (see also press release). Also interviews on TalkRadio and a Sputnik News interview on the world economic forum report highlighting the risk of extreme weather
  • January 10th 2018: Hudson weather interview on how possible future solar minimum will not make much of a dent in human-caused global warming

  • December 6th 2017: comments on study indicating low climate senisitivity is less likely

  • November 7th 2017: Another warm year pump primed extremes: comments in BBC & Times articles

  • September 21st 2017: helped with BBC article on recent Hurricanes and interviewed by BBC 5 Live

  • September 9th 2017: more on Hurricanes and climate as Irma smashes the northern Caribbean and bears down on Florida (see also Science Media Centre briefing

  • August 29th 2017: comments on Hurricane Harvey to Science Media Centre and ITN News at 10 (listen also to Austrian Broadcasting Corporation story)

  • July 24th 2017: Comment on Met Office research on high risk of unprecedented rainfall in current climate

  • July 12th 2017: CLIVAR Exchanges article on decadal variability and Earth's energy budget (PDF)

  • June 22nd 2017: new research in Nature showing smaller than expected effect of sulfate aerosol on cloud (press release | blog)

  • April 25th 2017: Science Media Centre comment on research highlighting statistical pitfalls of comparing global warming trends

  • April 21st 2017: Elusive origin of warming slowdown Nature Climate Change News & Views

  • March 16th 2017: Blog on changing wet and dry seasons (also posted on Weather&Climate@Reading)

  • March 10th 2017: Response to comment by new head of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) playing down the role of carbon dioxide in driving climate change.

  • February 20th 2017: I provided comments on new Atmospheric River research for an International Business Times article

  • January 19th 2017: Comments on warmest year globally, curious research on "mild" weather and paper suggesting similar temperatures at last interglacial 125,000 years ago despite 6-9m higher sea level than today (Independent, SMC)

  • November 14th 2016: contribution to a Channel 4 piece on record warmth in 2016

  • November 7th 2016: Our Changing Climate free online course begins

    October 29th 2016: Our Educational material for schools on climate change developed by RMetS, RGS and NCAS Climate was commended at the Scottish Association of Geography Teachers awards

    October 15th 2016 - BBC World interview about the recent deal to phase out potent HFC greenhouse gases

  • October 11th 2016 - I commented at the Science Media Centre on a PNAS paper suggesting a smaller anthropogenic aerosol cooling effect

  • October 8th 2016 - New studies on Africa rainfall and clouds have been published as part of the EU DACCIWA project (see Hill et al. 2016 and Dunning et al. 2016)

  • August 2nd 2016 - I spoke to eFM Korea about record high global temperatures

  • May 23rd 2016 - Contributed to Carbon Brief comment on Nature Climate Change paper exploring the climate response if all known fossil fuel reserves were burnt

  • April 7th 2016 - Science Media Centre comment on recent work comparing hydroclimate proxy data with simulations

  • February 23rd 2016 - New blog: Energy flows, rainfall patterns and climate

  • January 28th 2016 - Ozone pollution: surprising large role in global rainfall changes

  • January 26th 2016 - University of Reading seminar: Earth's energy budget & the water cycle

  • January 14th 2016 - Comment on Nature study suggesting delay in next glacial period (SMC, Telegraph, Carbon Brief)

  • January 7th 2016 - El Niño, weather patterns & flooding (SMC, Irish Times, BBC Radio 4)


  • December 31st 2015: Spoke about El Niño and recent UK weather extremes to New Scientist and local BBC radio stations/World Service

  • December 13th 2015: The Paris COP21 climate talks delivered a plan, now comes the hard bit: action [Wall Street Journal quotes Science Media Centre]

  • December 9th 2015 - I led the How do we predict the weather? departmental schools event

  • December 10th 2015: Long ribbon of damp damaging air - Guardian Weatherwatch comment on Cumbria flooding

  • December 7th 2015: Serious flooding in Cumbria relating to atmospheric river as part of storm Desmond causing large quantities of moisture to fuel sustained and heavy rainfall accumulating to unprecedented totals falling onto saturated ground following a wet November. I spoke to Sky News about the climate context.

  • November 2015: Talked to BBC Breakfast, BBC News Channel, 5 Live Breakfast (42mins) and BBC World about the Paris COP meeting

  • November 2015: NASA Sensing Our Planet feature: "Missing heat"

  • October 2015: Recent changes in Africa rainfall

  • October 2015: Recognition of Teaching & Learning from Higher Education Academy

  • July 2015: BBC Radio 4 Today program interview on ocean heating

  • June 2015: Comments to Carbon Brief and the Science Media Centre on a new assessment of the global surface temperature record.

  • May 2015: I have been awarded the "Buchan Prize" from the RMetS - thank you to the kind soul who nominated me: what a pleasant shock!

  • April 23rd 2015: Substantial eruption of Calbuco volcano in Chile

  • March 20th 2015: Department of Meteorology leads National eclipse expriment. Although the clouds parted up the road near Benson they remained stubborn in Reading. Here is an animation of the eclipse shadow from space from the SEVIRI simulated reflected sunlight (right).

  • February 2015: Detecting the rising anthropogenic greenhouse effect at the surface

  • January 31st 2015: New DEEP-C research on Earth's radiation budget since 1960 questions observed heating spike in ocean datasets in early 2000s.


  • December 17th 2014: Building UK resilience to flooding under a changing climate

  • November 10th 2014: Our Changing Climate Free MOOC course

  • October 24th 2014: The role of the ocean in tempering global warming

  • October 5th 2014: Improved observations of ocean heating and sea level rise (see also Conversation article)

  • September 14th 2014: Dichotomy of drought & deluge: comment on Greve et al. wet/dry changes (PDF)

  • September 13th 2014: Has global warming gone on holiday? (see also department blog)

  • August 27th 2014: Earth's energy balance: Nature Climate Change highlight our net radiative imbalance paper

  • August 21st 2014: Is Atlantic Ocean key in explaining surface warming slowdown? Conversation article and comment in Telegraph

  • August 5th 2014: Work from DEEP-C project published: Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012. See also NCAS highlight and blogs from Carbon brief and Climate Lab Book. One of most accessed GRL papers in August 2014

  • May 21st 2014: How confident are we in the response of the global water cycle to climate change? YouTube video of slides with audio from 2013 Royal Society Next Steps in Climate Change meeting (see also PDF copy of slides with links)

  • May 19th 2014: On Channel 4's Britain's Most Extreme Weather

  • April 16th 2014: Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain has been certified by ERL as one of its Highlights of 2013.

  • April 10th 2014: Causes of 2013/14 winter flooding & links to climate change

  • February 9th 2014: Comment on role of recent strengthening of the Walker circulation on the global warming hiatus (see also articles in Guardian and Conversation)

  • February 5th 2014: Channel 4 interview on extreme weather and climate change

  • February 5th 2014: BBC World Global by Jon Sopel interview on extreme weather.

  • January 14th 2014: Guardian article highlights our Atmospheric Rivers work (See also 2011 GRL and 2013 ERL papers)

  • January 8th 2013: Will climate change mean more storms and floods for Britain?

  • Jannuary 7th 2014: BBC Breakfast interview about the recent storms and climate change


  • December 24th 2013: Christmas Eve Storm hits the UK

  • December 2nd 2013: New EU project investigating the West African monsoon begins

  • September 9th 2019: Climate change is spinning up the global energy and water cycles

  • October 22nd 2013: 40 years of climate change

  • September 27th 2013: Publication of the IPCC Working Group 1 assessment of climate science. I was a contributing author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group I assessment of the science of climate change. Read the Summary for Policy Makers (PDF) and the final draft of the Full Report. The publication received substantial coverage including by the BBC (see extract from an exchange on the BBC News Channel with Professor Carter right).

  • Septmber 26th 2013: Video on the apparent slowdown in global warming.

  • September 24th 2013: Article on IPCC and media coverage in the Conversation

  • September 23rd 2013: Stockholm hosts UN climate change gathering. I talked Tom Spender from Voice of Russia about climate change, the IPCC report, geoengineering and the recent slowdown in surface warming. Listen...

  • September 16th 2013: Spurious media claims precede release of the IPCC report. Read more... (see also Carbon Brief)

  • August 28th 2013: Natural ocean variability explains recent slowdown in warming. My comment on an interesting article in Nature was covered by the Independent, the BBC, the Metro and The Week). Read more...

  • August 21st 2013: Wet regions getting wetter, dry regions drier as planet warms: science highlight (see also open access journal paper published in ERL)

  • July 24th 2013: Intensification in Atmospheric Rivers and implications for UK flooding - New research published in Environmental Research Letters was covered by the Independent and the BBC (see also press release and an animation showing an example of Atmospheric Rivers during November 2009).

  • July 23rd 2013: The recent slowdown in warming at the Earth's surface - a Science Media Centre briefing. Read more... Listen...

  • June 21st 2013: I talked to BBC Breakfast about the Cloud Appreciation Society Cloud Spotter app which will be used by NASA in their their public engagement program and will also add to ground truth validation of cloud properties measured from space by satellite instruments.

  • May 20th 2013: New observational constraints on climate response to rising CO2 levels: Science Media Centre (See also Guardian article)

  • May 14th 2013: Measuring the heating of planet Earth: I talked to Carbon Brief about how scientists are measuring the heating of the atmosphere and oceans as part of the DEEP-C project

  • March 19 2013: Misleading article on global warming by the Daily Mail. Read more...

  • 30 January 2013: Increasing risks of floods and droughts: a stakeholder event organised by the Walker Institute as part of the PREPARE project (see blog)

  • January 4 2013: 2012 wettest year on record for England. Read more...



  • December 21st 2012: Large quantities of moisture directed towards the UK (see image) with associated flooding in South West England and Wales and eastern Scotland (see flood extent on Severn and Thames.

  • November 22nd 2012: More flooding in the UK (see Met Office radar animation and BBC coverage) | synoptic charts | NCEP precipitation anomalies | geopotential anomalies | ECMWF Stream Function 16-23 Nov | 23-26 Nov | animation ) - see also Met Office Rainfall Totals , University of Reading press release and BBC blog.

  • November 20th 2012: I commented for a CNN article detailing the latest WMO report on greenhouse gases. The report highlights rising Methane concentrations (after a lull in the early 2000s) and also notes increases in other important but less well-known greenhouse gases such as Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF6) in addition to the continued increases in CO2 concentrations, close to the IPCC "business as usual" scenario.

  • October 7th 2012: Rivers of the Skies article by Jonathan Leake in the Sunday Times mentions our work on Atmospheric Rivers (see also GRL and JGR articles)

  • September 23/24th 2012: Heavy rainfall over the UK

  • September 2012: Testing simulations of global precipitation variation | See also Article and NCAS Highlight (PDF)

  • June 2012: Flooding in Newcastle and Southern England

  • May 2012: Reading's first Weather, Arts and Music Festival begins with the opportunity to be part of a Human Weather Forecasting Factory!

  • Jan 2012: Warming over last decade hidden below the ocean surface (see article & blog) | NASA article | Research Highlight


  • Dec 2011: Our colleague and friend, Dr David Grimes, who was dedicated to African rainfall and its importance to society, sadly passed away. He will be sorely missed by a great many people.

  • Dec 2011: Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers

  • Dec 2011: Atmospheric warming & the amplification of precipitation extremes featured as highly cited article by Science Watch

  • Oct 2011: University of Reading join International Space Innovation Centre (ISIC)

  • Sep 2011: Intensified flows of moisture into the tropical rainy belt

  • Sep 2011: Changes in Earth's radiative energy balance

  • Jun 2011: Adapting to the increasing risks of floods and droughts: stakeholders event.

  • Mar 2011: Clouds and the Earth's Radiation balance: Observational Evidence

  • Jan 2011: NERC Changing water cycle projects begin

  • Jun 2010: Focus issue: Anticipated Changes in the Global Water Cycle .

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    Older News


    October 2011:

    University of Reading joins International Space Innovation Centre

    Complex mathematical representations of Earth's atmosphere, oceans and land are required to make realistic predictions of future weather and climate. Satellite data is becoming increasingly important in evaluating and improving the physical representation of simulations of planet Earth that are made by these detailed computer models. For example, since 2003, Met Office weather forecast model simulations have been routinely scrutinised through comparisons with GERB satellite measurements of the Earth's radiative energy balance. Detailed analysis has been undertaken to understand and improve the simulation of cloud processes, examining the radiative properties of cirrus cloud from aircraft condensation trails and identifying the the greenhouse effect of desert dust.

    As part of the commitment to the exploitation of satellite data in monitoring and measuring the workings of planet Earth's environment, the University of Reading has joined ISIC. Read more...

    Comparisons of radiative energy emanating from planet Earth at 6am GMT on Monday 24 October 2011. This image was made by Met Office simulations and GERB satellite measurements.

    Above: Radiative energy (units: Wm-2) emanating from planet Earth at 6am GMT on Monday 24 October 2011 as simulated by the Met Office global forecast model and the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) satellite instrument.

    Dark regions in the image denote high altitude cloud, with cold tops that only weakly emit thermal infra-red (or longwave) radiative energy out to space. Relatively cloud-free, hot regions, such as Saudi Arabia in the image, emit strongly in the longwave part of the electromagnetic spectrum and appear light in the image above. This image was produced as part of the joint University of Reading and Met Office SINERGEE project (see article describing method), funded by the Natural Environment Research Council.


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    September 2011:

    Intensified flows of moisture into the tropical rainy belt

    Moisture is the fuel for tropical storms. Since they typically rain out in a day more water than is contained in the column of atmosphere, rain storms rely on a convergence of water vapour from surrounding regions. As part of the Natural Environment Research Council PREPARE project, work lead by project scientist, Matthias Zahn, has indicated an intensification of the inflow of moisture at low levels and outflow higher up in the tropical atmosphere over the last 2 decades (see Figure which depicts changes in moisture inflow into the tropical wet regions 1989-2008). Changes in moisture transport into the tropical wet regions 1989-2008

    We found that detailed calculations every 6 hours were required to accurately follow the flows of moisture and our results have implications for the tropical water cycle and the intensity of rainfall. Further work is required to understand the changes in tropical circulation and its implications for changes in precipitation patterns. This work was published in the Journal of Geophysical Research.

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    Changes in Earth's radiative energy balance 1985-2010

    In an article published in Meteorological Applications I put together the latest estimates of changes in the amount of energy entering the top of Earth's atmosphere. This comprises incoming sunlight, the outgoing reflected sunlight and the outgoing thermal emission of longwave radiation. The diagram below shows how this net flux changes from month to month (after removing the normal seasonal changes) based on satellite data (ERBS and CERES) and from reanalysis data which combines weather forecast models with observations:

    Estimates of near-global changes in (a) the net flux of energy and (b) the estimated cloud radiative effect (in Watts per metre squared) since 1985 (the region considered is 60<sup>o</sup>S-60<sup>o</sup>N). Estimates of near-global changes in (a) the net flux of energy into the top of the atmosphere (Net) and (b) the cloud radiative effect (NetCF) on this energy balance calculated by removing the simulated clear-sky fluxes (both in Watts per metre squared) since 1985 (the region considered is 60oS-60oN).

    The warm El Niño years of 1998 and 2010 are characterised by negative departures from the norm. This is a result of natural shifts in the distributions of water vapour, cloud and surface temperature. Also prominent is a drop in net flux following the Pinatubo volcanic eruption in 1991 visible in the ERBS satellite data. Reflective particles called aerosol entering the stratosphere following the eruption increased the reflectivity of the planet (this is not seen in the reanalysis model since the volcano was not included and so the NetCF shows the influence of aerosol and cloud on the radiation balance; climate models can actually capture volcanic induced changes in the energy budget quite well).

    Future work is endeavouring to understanding in more detail the bumps and dips in this graph which may tell us more about how the climate responds to small yet persistent radiative imbalances that determine whether our climate warms of cools. At present, human influences on the atmosphere have caused the Earth to receive more energy each year than it loses to space, resulting in a heating of the oceans.


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  • PREPARE stakeholders engagement event on "Adapting to the increasing risks of floods and droughts". Read more...

  • RMetS/IOP meeting "Clouds and the Earth's Radiation balance: Observational Evidence" 23rd March 2011, Edinburgh (read more...)

  • NERC Changing water cycle projects begin: PAGODA and HYDEF

  • Special focus issue on "Anticipated Changes in the Global Water Cycle" is now published in Environmental Research Letters.


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    Blog posts/other

    See also Department of Meteorology Blogs

  • 11th August 2023 More severe wet and dry extremes as rapid warming of climate continues (NCEO & Connect Reading blogs) ( Research Reading Blog; Weather&Climate@Reading blog)

  • 25th May 2023: An inevitable climate breach? NCEO news item

  • 31st October 2022: Where is the heat going during La Nina? NOAA climate.gov blog

  • October 2022: Worsening Flooding and Drought with every bit of Warming

  • September 2022: Monitoring Climate Change from Space

  • November 2021: Good COP, bad COP - contribution to blog by Lucy Todd

  • November 2021: How and why the climate is changing (RMetS YouTube video)

  • October 2021: Climate Change: Providing the Science for Politicians (University of Readingpodast)

  • September 2021: Projected longer dry spells under climate change occur during dry seasons not wet seasons by Caroline Wainwright

  • May 2020: Do cuts in particle pollution accelerate climate change? (Met department blog)

  • February 2020: Rainfall decline over Eastern Africa linked to shorter wet seasons by Caroline Wainwright

  • September 2018: Clouds, climate and the Roaring 40s (see also Met department blog)

  • June 2017: Volcano reveals simpler than expected cloud-climate response to tiny aerosol particles (also on Climate Lab Book)

  • March 2017: Changing wet and dry seasons (also posted by Walker Institute and Weather&Climate@Reading)

  • February 2016: Energy flows, rainfall patterns and climate (also posted as a Weather&Climate@Reading blog)

  • November 2015: NASA Sensing Our Planet feature: "Missing heat"

  • October 2015: Recent changes in Africa rainfall (published on WCD blog)

  • June 2015: Comments on a new assessment of the global surface temperature record (Carbon Brief | Science Media Centre)

  • April 23rd 2015: Substantial eruption of Calbuco volcano in Chile (Carbon Brief)

  • February 2015: Detecting the rising anthropogenic greenhouse effect at the surface

  • October 24th 2014: The role of the ocean in tempering global warming

  • October 5th 2014: Improved observations of ocean heating and sea level rise (see also Conversation article)

  • September 13th 2014: Has global warming gone on holiday? (see also department blog)

  • August 21st 2014: Is Atlantic Ocean key in explaining surface warming slowdown? (Conversation article)

  • Comments/blogs on apparent slowing in surface warming (NCAS highlight | Carbon brief | Climate Lab Book).

  • February 9th 2014: Comment on role of recent strengthening of the Walker circulation on the global warming hiatus (see also Conversation article)

  • January 8th 2013: Will climate change mean more storms and floods for Britain? (Carbon Brief)

  • December 24th 2013: Christmas Eve Storm hits the UK

  • October 22nd 2013: 40 years of climate change

  • Septmber 26th 2013: Video on the apparent slowdown in global warming.

  • September 24th 2013: Article on IPCC and media coverage in the Conversation

  • September 16th 2013: Spurious media claims precede release of the IPCC report. Read more...

  • August 28th 2013: Natural ocean variability explains recent slowdown in warming

  • August 21st 2013: Wet regions getting wetter, dry regions drier as planet warms

  • July 24th 2013: Intensification in Atmospheric Rivers and implications for UK flooding (Independent)

  • July 23rd 2013: The recent slowdown in warming at the Earth's surface (Science Media Centre briefing)

  • May 14th 2013: Measuring the heating of planet Earth (Carbon Brief)

  • March 19 2013: Misleading article on global warming by the Daily Mail

  • September 23/24th 2012: Heavy rainfall over the UK

  • September 2012: Testing simulations of global precipitation variation

  • June 2012: Flooding in Newcastle and Southern England

  • Jan 2012: Warming over last decade hidden below the ocean surface (see article & blog) | NASA article | Research Highlight

  • Dec 2011: Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers

  • Oct 2011: University of Reading join International Space Innovation Centre (ISIC)

  • Sep 2011: Intensified flows of moisture into the tropical rainy belt

  • Sep 2011: Changes in Earth's radiative energy balance

  • Jun 2011: Adapting to the increasing risks of floods and droughts: stakeholders event.

  • Mar 2011: Clouds and the Earth's Radiation balance: Observational Evidence

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    Richard P. Allan
    Location: Department of Meteorology (2U15)

     
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