Publications  (please email me for a copy of in press or inaccessible articles)

UNDER REVIEW OR IN PRESS

Osso et al.

Baker et al.

Grose et al.

Wallace et al., 'Reducing uncertainty in 20th century anthropogenic aerosol forcing through the application of parallel constraints to climate model', GRL

2021

Slivinski et al., 2021, 'An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3', Journal of Climate, 34, 1417, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0505.1

2020

Lo et al., 2020, 'UK climate projections: Summer daytime and nighttime urban heat island changes in England’s major cities', Journal of Climate, 33, 9015, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0961.1

Wilcox et al., 2020, 'Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions', Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20, 11955, doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-11955-2020

Shonk et al., 2020, 'Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century'. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 20, 14903, 10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020

Craig & Hawkins, 2020, 'Digitising observations from the Met Office Daily Weather Reports for 1900-1910 using citizen scientist volunteers', Geoscience Data Journal, 7, 116, doi: 10.1002/gdj3.93

Sutton & Hawkins, 2020, 'Global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments', Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 751, doi: 10.5194/esd-11-751-2020

Lehner et al., 2020, 'Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple Large Ensembles and CMIP5/6', Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491, doi: 10.5194/esd-11-491-2020

Dittus et al., 2020, 'Sensitivity of historical climate simulations to uncertain aerosol forcing', GRL, 47, e2019GL085806, 10.1029/2019GL085806

Hawkins et al., 2020, 'Observed emergence of the climate change signal: from the familar to the unknown', GRL, 47, e2019GL086259, doi: 10.1029/2019GL086259

2019

Wood et al., 2019, 'Observable, low-order dynamical controls on thresholds of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation', Climate Dynamics, 53, 6815, doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04956-1

Burt & Hawkins, 2019, 'Near‐zero humidities on Ben Nevis, Scotland, revealed by pioneering 19th‐century observers and modern volunteers', International Journal of Climatology, 39, 4451, doi: 10.1002/joc.6084

Hegerl et al., 2019, 'Causes of climate change over the historical record', ERL, 14, 123006, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557

Boult et al., 2019, 'Human‐driven habitat conversion is a more immediate threat to Amboseli elephants than climate change', Conservation Science and Practice, 1, e87, doi: 10.1111/csp2.87

Slivinski et al., 2019, 'Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: Improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system', QJRMS, 145, 2876, doi: 10.1002/qj.3598

Hawkins et al., 2019, 'Hourly weather observations from the Scottish Highlands (1883–1904) rescued by volunteer citizen scientists', Geoscience Data, 6, 160, doi: 10.1002/gdj3.79

Hawkins, Faehn and Fuglestvedt, 2019, 'The climate spiral demonstrates the power of sharing creative ideas', BAMS, 100, 753, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0228.1 (open access)

Marchi et al., 2019, 'Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models', Climate Dynamics, 52, 2775, doi: 10.1007/s00382-18-4292-2

Valdivieso et al., 2019, 'Thunderstorm occurrence at ten sites across Great Britain over 1884–1993', Goescience Data, doi: 10.1002/gdj3.75

Kushnir et al., 2019, 'Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate', Nature Climate Change, 9, 94, doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7

2018

Mora et al., 2018, 'Broad threat to humanity from cumulative climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions', Nature Climate Change, 8, 1062, doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0315-6

Smith et al., 2018, 'Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5C', GRL, 45, 11895, doi: 10.1029/2018GL079362 (open access)

Stammer et al., 2018, 'Science in a world of transient climate change: enabling regional to local predictions in support of reliable climate information', Earth Frontiers, 6, 1498

Cassou et al., 2018, 'Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and opportunities', BAMS, 99, 479, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0286.1 (open access)

Schurer et al., 2018, 'Interpretations of the Paris climate target: a comment on Millar et al.', Nature Geoscience, 11, 220, doi: 10.1038/s41561-018-0086-8

2017

Owens et al., 2017, 'The Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice Age: An update from recent reconstructions and climate simulations', Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 7, A33, doi: 10.1051/swsc/2017034

Harrington et al., 2017, 'Seasonal cycles enhance disparities between low- and high-income countries in exposure to monthly temperature emergence with future warming', Environmental Research Letters, 12, 114039, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa95ae (open access)

Bethke et al., 2017, 'Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability', Nature Climate Change, 7, 799, doi: 10.1038/nclimate3394

Hawkins et al., 2017, 'Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period', BAMS, 98, 1841 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0007.1 (open access)

Schurer et al., 2017, 'Importance of the pre-industrial baseline in determining the likelihood of exceeding the Paris limits', Nature Climate Change, 7, 563, doi: 10.1038/nclimate3345

Melia et al., 2017, 'Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions', Environmental Research Letters, 12, 084005, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a60 (open access)

Santer et al., 2017, 'Investigating the causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates', Nature Geoscience, 10, 478, doi: 10.1038/ngeo2973

Mora et al., 2017, 'Global risk of deadly heat', Nature Climate Change, 7, 501, doi: 10.1038/nclimate3322

Frame et al., 2017, 'Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates', Nature Climate Change, 7, 407, doi: 10.1038/nclimate3297

Suckling et al., 2017, 'An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: A global attribution and regional hindcasts', Climate Dynamics, 48, 3115, doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3255-8 (open access)

Lockwood et al., 2017, 'Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age', Astronomy & Geophysics, 58, 2.17, 10.1093/astrogeo/atx057 (free)

Volpi et al., 2017, 'Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach', Climate Dynamics, 48, 1841, doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3176-6

Shaffrey et al., 2017, 'Decadal Predictions with the HiGEM High Resolution Global Coupled Climate Model: Description and Basic Evaluation', Climate Dynamics, 48, 297, doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3075-x (open access)

2016

Good et al., 2016, 'Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2K of global warming', Nature Communications, 7, 13667, doi: 10.1038/ncomms13667 (open access)

Anderson, Hawkins & Jones, 2016, 'CO₂, the greenhouse effect and global warming: From the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today’s Earth System Models', Endeavour, 40, 178, doi: 10.1016/j.endeavour.2016.07.002 (open access)

Melia et al., 2016, 'Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes', Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9720 doi: 10.1002/2016GL069315 (open access)

Hawkins & Sutton, 2016, 'Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world', BAMS, 97, 963, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00154.1 (open access)

Day et al., 2016, 'The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1', GMD, 9, 2255, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016 (open access)

Richardson et al., 2016, 'Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth', Nature Climate Change, 6, 931, doi: 10.1038/nclimate3066

Harrington et al., 2016, 'Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes', Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 055007, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055007 (open access)

Hawkins et al., 2016, 'Irreducible uncertainty in near-term regional climate projections', Climate Dynamics, 46, 3807, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8 (open access)

Holmes et al., 2016, 'Robust changes in temperature variability under greenhouse gas forcing and the relationship with thermal advection', Journal of Climate, 29, 2221, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00735.1

Fyfe et al., 2016, 'Making sense of the early-2000s global warming slowdown', Nature Climate Change, 6, 224, 10.1038/nclimate2938

Hawkins et al., 2016, 'Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems', QJRMS, 142, 672 doi: 10.1002/qj.2643 (open access)

Goessling et al., 2016, 'Predictability of the Arctic sea-ice edge', Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 1642, doi: 10.1002/2015GL067232 (open access)

Guemas et al., 2016, 'A review of Arctic sea ice predictability and prediction on seasonal-to-decadal timescales', QJRMS, 142, 546, doi: 10.1002/qj.2401

Tietsche, Hawkins & Day, 2016, 'Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate', Journal of Climate, 29, 331, 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0421.1

2015

Eden, van Oldenborgh, Hawkins & Suckling, 2015, 'A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction', GMD, 8, 3947-3973, doi: 10.5194/gmd-8-3947-2015

Melia, Haines & Hawkins, 2015, 'Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations', The Cryosphere, 9, 2237, doi: 10.5194/tc-9-2237-2015

Sutton, Suckling & Hawkins, 2015, 'What does global temperature tell us about local climate?', Phil. Trans. A, 373, 20140426, doi: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0426

Xie et al., 2015, 'Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change: Issues and opportunities for progress', Nature Climate Change, 5, 921, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2689

Cowtan et al., 2015, 'Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures', Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6526, doi: 10.1002/2015GL064888

Usoskin et al., 2015, 'The Maunder minimum (1645-1715) was indeed a Grand minimum: A reassessment of multiple datasets', Astronomy & Astrophysics, 581, A95, doi: 10.1051/0004-6361/201526652

King et al., 2015, 'The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes', ERL, 10, 094015, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094015 (selected as a 'Highlight of 2015' for ERL)

Hawkins et al., 2015, 'Graphics: Scrap rainbow colour scales', Correspondence in Nature, 519, 291, doi: 10.1038/519291d

Anderson et al., 2015, 'Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures', Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 1190, doi: 10.1002/2014GL062593

Swart, Fyfe, Hawkins, Kay & Jahn, 2015, 'Influence of internal variability on Arctic sea-ice trends', Nature Climate Change, 5, 86, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2483

Allison, Hawkins & Woollings, 2015, 'An event-based approach to understanding decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation', Climate Dynamics, 44, 163, doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2271-9

2014

Fischer, Sedlacek, Hawkins & Knutti, 2014, 'Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes', Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8554, doi: 10.1002/2014GL062018

Day, Hawkins & Tietsche, 2014, 'Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill?', Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7566, doi: 10.1002/2014GL061694

Wilby et al., 2014, 'The Statistical DownScaling Model - Decision Centric (SDSM-DC): conceptual basis and applications', Climate Research, 61, 251, doi: 10.3354/cr01254

Hawkins, Joshi & Frame, 2014, 'Wetter then drier in some tropical areas', Nature Climate Change, 4, 646, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2299

Hawkins et al., 2014, 'Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates', Brief Communication Arising in Nature, 511, E3, doi: 10.1038/nature13523, and News & Views

Day, Tietsche & Hawkins, 2014, 'Pan-Arctic and regional sea ice predictability: initialisation month dependence', Journal of Climate, 27, 4371, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00614.1

Hawkins, Dong, Robson, Sutton & Smith, 2014, 'The interpretation and use of biases in decadal climate predictions', Journal of Climate, 27, 2931, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00473.1 (preprint PDF)

Meehl et al., 2014, 'Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches', BAMS, 95, 243, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1 (open access)

Tietsche et al., 2014, 'Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea-ice predictability in current GCMs', Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1035, doi: 10.1002/2013GL058755 (open access)

Hawkins, Edwards & McNeall, 2014, 'Pause for thought', Nature Climate Change, 4, 154, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2150

Robson, Hodson, Hawkins & Sutton, 2014, 'Atlantic overturning in decline?', Nature Geoscience, 7, 2, doi: 10.1038/ngeo2050

2013

Ho, Hawkins et al., 2013, 'Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion', Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5770, doi: 10.1002/2013GL057630 (open access)

Hawkins & Jones, 2013, 'On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar', QJRMS, 139, 1961, doi: 10.1002/qj.2178 (open access)

Smith et al., 2013, 'Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions', Climate Dynamics, 41, 2875, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0

Ba et al., 2013, 'A mechanism for Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in the Kiel Climate Model', Climate Dynamics, 41, 2133, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1633-4

Koehler, Challinor, Hawkins & Asseng, 2013, 'Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability', Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 034016, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034016 (open access)

Ho, Hawkins, Shaffrey & Underwood, 2013, 'Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions', Climate Dynamics, 41, 917, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1531-9 (open access)

Hodson et al., 2013, 'Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections', Climate Dynamics, 40, 2849, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1512-z (open access)

Vermeulen et al., 2013, 'Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture', PNAS, 110, 8357, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1219441110 (open access)

Booth et al., 2013, 'Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven GCMs', Earth System Dynamics, 4, 95, doi: 10.5194/esd-4-95-2013 (open access)

van Oldenborgh, Doblas-Reyes, Drijfhout & Hawkins, 2013, 'Reliability of regional climate model trends', Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 014055, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014055 (open access)

Stott, Good, Jones, Gillett & Hawkins, 2013, 'The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming', Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 014024, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014024 (open access)

Hawkins, Fricker, Challinor, Ferro, Ho & Osborne, 2013, 'Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s', Global Change Biology, 19, 937, doi: 10.1111/gcb.12069 (open access)

Hawkins, Osborne, Ho & Challinor, 2013, 'Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: an idealised case study over Europe', Ag. For. Met., 170, 19, doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.007 (or PDF)

Goddard et al., 2013, 'A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal prediction experiments', Climate Dynamics, 40, 245, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2 (open access)

2012

Vecchi et al., 2012, Comment on 'Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5N', Science, 338, 604, doi: 10.1126/science.1222566, and reply (open access)

Chalmers, Highwood, Hawkins, Sutton & Wilcox, 2012, 'Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6', Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18709, doi: 10.1029/2012GL052848 (or PDF)

Hawkins & Vidale, 2012, 'Counting the coming storms', News & Views in Nature Climate Change, 2, 574, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1639

Hawkins & Sutton, 2012, 'Time of emergence of climate signals', Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L01702, doi: 10.1029/2011GL050087 (or PDF)

2011

Hawkins et al., 2011, 'Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of SSTs with a perfect model approach', Climate Dynamics, 37, 2495, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1023-3 (or PDF)

Ortega, Hawkins & Sutton, 2011, 'Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled GCM', Climate Dynamics, 37, 1771, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1025-1 (or PDF)

Joshi, Hawkins, Sutton, Lowe & Frame, 2011, 'Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels', Nature Climate Change, 1, 407, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1261, Editorial

Yip, Ferro, Stephenson & Hawkins, 2011, 'A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions', Journal of Climate, 24, 4634, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4085.1 (or PDF)

Hawkins & Sutton, 2011, 'The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change', Climate Dynamics, 37, 407, doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6 (or PDF). Interactive results website

Hawkins, 2011, 'Our evolving climate: communicating the effects of climate variability', Weather, 66, 175, doi: 10.1002/wea.761, (or PDF), blog article

Hawkins et al., 2011, 'Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a GCM and links to ocean freshwater transport', Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L10605, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047208, Editor's Highlight, Correction (or PDF)

Hawkins & Sutton, 2011, 'Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean', Journal of Climate, 24, 109, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1 (or PDF)

2010

Charlton-Perez, Hawkins et al., 2010, 'The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century', Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, 9473, doi: 10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010

Poulter et al., 2010, 'Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters', Global Change Biology, 16, 2476, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02157.x

2009

Meehl et al., 2009, 'Decadal prediction: can it be skillful?', BAMS, 90, 1467, doi: 10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1 (open access)

Hawkins & Sutton, 2009, 'The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions', BAMS, 90, 1095, doi: 10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1 (open access), Interactive results website and press release

Hawkins & Sutton, 2009, 'Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling', Journal of Climate, 22, 3960, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1 (or PDF).

2008

Hawkins & Sutton, 2008, 'Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation', GRL, 35, L11603, doi: 10.1029/2008GL034059 (or PDF), associated New Scientist article.

2007

Hawkins & Sutton, 2007, 'Variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation described by 3d EOFs', Climate Dynamics, 29, 745, doi: 10.1007/s00382-007-0263-8, Supplementary animated figure, publishers erratum, or PDF
NOTE: publishers version has x-axis with a (incorrect) reversed scale in Figs. 5,6.

NON-PEER REVIEWED

Hawkins, 2012, 'Our evolving climate', Significance magazine, or PDF

Jewson & Hawkins, 2010, 'Uncertain climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles: when to use them and when to ignore them', arXiv/1006.5327

Jewson & Hawkins, 2009, 'Improving uncertain climate forecasts using a new minimum mean square error estimator for the mean of the normal distribution', arxiv/0912.4395

Jewson & Hawkins, 2009, 'Improving the expected accuracy of forecasts of future climate using a simple bias-variance tradeoff', arxiv/0911.1904

Jewson & Hawkins, 2009, 'CMIP3 ensemble spread, model similarity, and climate prediction uncertainty', arxiv/0909.1890

Previous PhD research in astrophysics:

publications | thesis | press release