SINATRA project Sub-Task 1.3
Atmospheric Precursors

Susceptibility of catchments to INTense RAinfall and flooding (SINATRA) is a consortium lead by Hannah Cloke funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Flooding From Intense Rainfall (FFIR) programme running from 2013-2017. The work-flow is shown below (see project proposal, RCUK description, blog post and project website (joint with sister project FRANC!) for more details):

Sub-task 1.3 will analyse atmospheric precursors for flooding from intense rainfall which will investigate the atmospheric conditions at the large-scale which lead to intense flooding events. We will also use results and techniques from the NERC Changing Water Cycle projects HyDEF and CONVEX projects.

Above is an animation of the total atmospheric water vapour (colours) with arrows denoting a strong flows of moisture above 1000 kg per metre per second leading up to the flooding in Newcastle on the 28 June. We hope to understand the links between these large-scale flows in moisture and summer flooding events in the UK in this work task.


26 March 2015 - Richard Allan attends and Environment Agency board meeting to discuss Spatial Joint Probability for FCRM and National Risk Assessment project

28 January 2015 - Rob Lamb visits from JBA to discuss scenarios for multiple flooding events

10 February 2015 Members of the SINATRA ST1.3 team visited the Flood Forecasting Centre at the Met Office and were hosted by Charlie Pilling

18-20 November 2014 - A SINATRA project meeting was held in Newcastle

FFIR integration meeting, University of Reading

12th November - SINATRA Kick-off meeting, University of Reading

ST1.3 presentation on Atmospheric Precursors to Flooding from Intense Summer Rainfall


Here will appear a growing list of links to journal papers, blogs and web links that are of relevance to the SINATRA project (specifically ST1.3).

SSMIS satellite estimates of rainfall and water vapour

ECMWF reanalysis data (registration required) including ERA CLIM

20th Century Reanalysis| NOAA plotting portal

European high resolution reanalysis

MIDAS surface station data

British Rainfall publication 1860-1968 digitised by Met Office

TIGGE ensembles from ECMWF (2006-present)

NOAA global ensemble reforecast dataset (webinar) Dissertations

Burton, C. "How weather patterns have contributed to extreme precipitation in the United Kingdom, and links to past flood events, 2011, MSc Dissertation

Relevant Journal papers

Allan, R. P., C. Liu, M. Zahn, D. A. Lavers, E. Koukouvagias and A. Bodas-Salcedo (2014) Physically consistent responses of the global atmospheric hydrological cycle in models and observations, Surv. Geophys., doi:10.1007/s10712-012-9213-z (PDF)

Arnell and Gosling (2014) The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale, Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5

Berg et al.(2009), Seasonal characteristics of the relationship between daily precipitation intensity and surface temperature, JGR., doi:10.1029/2009JD012008.

Berg et al. (2013), Strong increase in convective precipitation in response to higher temperatures, Nat. Geosci., doi:10.1038/NGEO1731.

Blenkinsop et al. (2015) Temperature influences on intense UK hourly precipitation and dependency on large-scale circulation, ERL, 10, 054021 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054021

Clark, R. C. and D. C. Webb (2013) A severe hailstorm across the English Midlands on 28 June 2012, Weather, 68, 284-291, DOI: 10.1002/wea.2162

Chan et al. (2016) Downturn in scaling of UK extreme rainfall with temperature for future hottest days, Nature Geoscience, 9, 24-28, doi:10.1038/ngeo2596

Dacre et al. (2014) How do atmospheric rivers form? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi: 10.1175/bams-d-14-00031.1.

Gao et al. (2015) Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America, JGR, doi: 10.1002/2015GL065435.

Gimeno et al. (2014) Atmospheric rivers: a mini-review., Frontiers in Earth Science, 2, doi:10.3389/feart.2014.00002.

Hagos et al. (2015) Resolution and dynamical core dependence of atmospheric river frequency in global model simulations. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00567.1.

Kao, S.-C., and A. R. Ganguly (2011), Intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D16119, doi:10.1029/2010JD015529.

Kendon et al. (2014) Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model, Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2258

Lavers, D. A., R. P. Allan, G. Villarini, B. Lloyd-Hughes, D. J. Brayshaw and A. J. Wade (2013) Future Changes in Atmospheric Rivers and Their Implications for Winter Flooding in Britain, Environmental. Res. Lett. 8, 034010 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034010 | PDF

Lavers, D. A., G. Villarini, R. P. Allan, E. F. Wood and A. J. Wade (2012) Atmospheric Rivers in atmospheric reanalyses: their detection, and links with the large-scale climatic circulation and British winter floods, J Geophys. Res. , 117, D20106, doi:10.1029/2012JD018027 | PDF

Lavers, D. A., R. P. Allan, E. F. Wood, G. Villarini, D. J. Brayshaw and A. J. Wade (2011) Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers, Geophys. Res. Lett. , 38, L23803, doi: 10.1029/2011GL049783 | PDF

Lepore et al. (2015) Temperature and CAPE dependence of rainfall extremes in the eastern United States, GRL, DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062247

Lenderink and Van Meijgaard (2008) Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes, Nat. Geosci., doi:10.1038/ngeo262

Lenderink and van Meijgaard (2010) Linking increases in hourly precipitation extremes to atmospheric temperature and moisture changes. Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 025208, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025208

Lewis, M. W. and S. L. Gray (2010) Categorisation of synoptic environments associated with mesoscale convective systems over the UK, Atmos. Res., 97, 194-213, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.04.001

Molnar et al. (2015) Storm type effects on super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of intense rainstorm properties with air temperature, HESS, 19, 1753-1766, doi:10.5194/hess-19-1753-2015

O'Gorman, P. (2015) Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change, Curr Clim Change Rep, doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0009-3

O'Gorman and Schneider (2009) The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 106, 14773-14777 doi:10.1073/pnas.0907610106.

Penning-Rowsell (2014) A realistic assessment of fluvial and coastal flood risk in England and Wales, Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 40, 44-61, doi:10.1111/tran.12053

Scoccimarro et al. (2015) Projected Changes in Intense Precipitation over Europe at the Daily and Subdaily Time Scales, J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00779.1

Thompson et al. (2003) Close proximity soundings within supercell environments obtained from the rapid update cycle, Weather Forecasting, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1243:CPSWSE>2.0.CO;2.

Utsumi et al.(2011) Does higher surface temperature intensify extreme precipitation?, GRL, DOI: 10.1029/2011GL048426

Wasko et al. (2016) Reduced spatial extent of extreme storms at higher temperatures, GRL, doi:10.1002/2016GL068509

Zheng et al. (2015) Opposing local precipitation extremes, Nature Clim. Ch., 5, 389-390, doi:10.1038/nclimate2579


Richard P. Allan
Location: Department of Meteorology (2U15)


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