Publications and research related activities

Research articles in international peer reviewed journals

  1. Cooper ES, Dance SL, Garcia-Pintado J, Nichols NK, Smith PJ (2018)Observation impact, domain length and parameter estimation in data assimilation for flood forecasting. Environmental Modelling and Software. Accepted
  2. Tabeart JM, Dance SL, Haben SA, Lawless AS, Nichols NK, Waller JA (2018) The conditioning of least-squares problems in variational data assimilation. Numer Linear Algebra Appl. 2018;e2165. Accepted. doi:10.1002/nla.2165
  3. Fowler, A. M., Dance, S. L. and Waller, J. A. (2018), On the interaction of observation and prior error correlations in data assimilation. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 144: 48-62. doi:10.1002/qj.3183
  4. Waller, J. A., Dance, S. L. and Nichols, N. K. (2017), On diagnosing observation-error statistics with local ensemble data assimilation. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 143: 2677-2686. doi:10.1002/qj.3117
  5. Pinnington, E. M., Casella, E., Dance, S. L., Lawless, A. S., Morison, J. I. L., Nichols, N. K., Wilkinson, M. and Quaife, T. L. (2017) Understanding the effect of disturbance from selective felling on the carbon dynamics of a managed woodland by combining observations with model predictions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences doi:10.1002/2017JG003760
  6. Cordoba, M., Dance, S. L., Kelly, G. A., Nichols, N. K. and Waller, J. A. (2017), Diagnosing atmospheric motion vector observation errors for an operational high-resolution data assimilation system. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 143: 333-341. doi:10.1002/qj.2925
  7. Pinnington, E. M., Casella, E., Dance, S. L., Lawless, A. S., Morison, J. I. L., Nichols, N. K., Wilkinson, M. and Quaife, T. L. (2016) Investigating the role of prior and observation error correlations in improving a model forecast of forest carbon balance using Four Dimensional Variational data assimilation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 228-229. pp. 299-314. ISSN 0168-1923 doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.07.006
  8. Waller, J. A., Ballard, S. P., Dance, S. L., Kelly, G., Nichols, N. K. and Simonin, D. (2016) Diagnosing horizontal and inter-channel observation error correlations for SEVIRI observations using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics. Remote Sensing, 8 (7). 581. ISSN 2072-4292 doi: 10.3390/rs8070581
  9. Mirza, A. K., Ballard, S. P., Dance, S. L., Maisey, P., Rooney, G. G. and Stone, E. K. (2016) Comparison of aircraft derived observations with in situ research aircraft measurements. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2864 (In Press)
  10. Waller, J. A., Simonin, D., Dance, S. L., Nichols, N. K. and Ballard, S. P. (2016) Diagnosing observation error correlations for Doppler radar radial winds in the Met Office UKV model using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics. Monthly Weather Review. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0340.1
  11. Mason, D. C., Garcia-Pintado, J., Cloke, H. L. and Dance, S. L. (2016) Evidence of a topographic signal in surface soil moisture derived from ENVISAT ASAR wide swath data. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and GeoInformation, 45. pp. 178-186. ISSN 0303-2434 doi: 10.1016/j.jag.2015.02.004
  12. Waller, J. A., Dance, S. L. and Nichols, N. K. (2016) Theoretical insight into diagnosing observation error correlations using observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis statistics. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142 (694). pp. 418-431. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2661
  13. David C. Mason, Javier Garcia-Pintado, Hannah L. Cloke, Sarah L. Dance,(2015) The potential of flood forecasting using a variable-resolution global Digital Terrain Model and flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images. Front. Earth Sci. 3 (43) doi:10.3389/feart.2015.00043
  14. Javier Garcia-Pintado, David C. Mason, Sarah L. Dance, Hannah L. Cloke, Jeff C. Neal, Jim Freer, Paul D. Bates (2015), Satellite-supported flood forecasting in river networks: A real case study, J. Hydrol, 523: 706-724, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.084
  15. Waller, J. A., Dance, S. L., Lawless, A. S. and Nichols, N. K. (2014) Estimating correlated observation error statistics using an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Tellus A, 66, 23294, doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v66.23294
  16. Stewart, L. M., Dance, S. L., Nichols, N. K., Eyre, J. R. and Cameron, J. (2014), Estimating interchannel observation-error correlations for IASI radiance data in the Met Office system. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 140: 1236-1244, doi: 10.1002/qj.2211
  17. Waller, J. A., Dance, S. L., Lawless, A. S., Nichols, N. K. and Eyre, J. R. (2014), Representativity error for temperature and humidity using the Met Office high-resolution model. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 140: 1189-1197, doi: 10.1002/qj.2207
  18. Garcia-Pintado, J., Neal, J.C., Mason, D.C., Dance, S.L., Bates, P.D., (2013) Scheduling satellite-based SAR acquisition for sequential assimilation of water level observations into flood modelling, J. Hydrology, 495, pp 252-266, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.03.050
  19. Stewart, L.M., Dance, S.L., Nichols, N.K. (2013) Data assimilation with correlated observation errors: experiments with a 1-D shallow water model, Tellus A 2013, 65, 19546, doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19546
  20. Smith, P. J., Thornhill, G. D., Dance, S. L., Lawless, A. S., Mason, D. C. and Nichols, N. K. (2013), Data assimilation for state and parameter estimation: application to morphodynamic modelling. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.. 139:, pp 314-327. doi: 10.1002/qj.1944
  21. Thornhill, G.D., Mason, D.C., Dance, S.L., Lawless, A.S., Nichols, N.K., Forbes, H.R., (2012) Integration of a 3D Variational data assimilation scheme with a coastal area morphodynamic model of Morecambe Bay. Coastal Eng., 69. pp 82-96. doi: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2012.05.010
  22. Rennie, S.J., Dance, S.L., Illingworth, A.J., Ballard, S.P., and Simonin, D. (2011) 3D-Var assimilation of insect-derived Doppler radar radial winds in convective cases using a high resolution model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139 (4). pp. 1148-1163. doi: 10.1175/2010MWR3482.1
  23. Baxter, G.M., Dance, S.L., Lawless, A.S., and Nichols, N.K. (2011) Four-dimensional variational data assimilation for high resolution nested models. Computers and Fluids, 46, pp 137-141 doi: 10.1016/j.compfluid.2011.01.023
  24. Smith, P.J., Dance, S.L., Nichols, N.K. (2011) A hybrid data assimilation scheme for model parameter estimation: application to morphodynamic modelling Computers and Fluids, 46, pp 436-441, doi:10.1016/j.compfluid.2011.01.010
  25. Pocock, J.A., Dance, S.L., Lawless, A.S. (2011) State Estimation using the Particle Filter with Mode Tracking Computers and Fluids, 46, pp 392-397 doi:10.1016/j.compfluid.2011.02.009
  26. Petrie, R.E., and Dance, S.L. (2010) Ensemble-based data assimilation and the localisation problem. Weather, 65, 3, pp65-69, doi:10.1002/wea.505
  27. Rennie, S.J., Illingworth, A.J., Dance, S.L., Ballard, S. (2010) The accuracy of Doppler radar wind retrievals using insects as targets. Meteorological Applications, 17(4), pp 419-432, doi: 10.1002/met.174
  28. Mason, D.C., Scott, T.R, Dance, S.L., (2010) Remote sensing of intertidal morphological change in Morecambe Bay, U.K., between 1991 and 2007, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 87(3) pp487-496, doi: 10.1016/j.ecss.2010.01.015.
  29. Feng, L., Palmer, P.I., Boesch, H and Dance, S. (2009) Estimating surface CO2 fluxes from space-borne dry air mole fraction observations using an Ensemble Kalman filter. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 9, pp 2619-2633
  30. Smith, P.J., Dance, S.L., Baines, M.J., Nichols N.K, and Scott, T.R. (2009), Variational data assimilation for parameter estimation: application to a simple morphodynamic model. Ocean Dynamics 59 (5), pp697-708, doi:10.1007/s10236-009-0205-6
  31. Stewart, L. M., Dance, S.L. and Nichols, N.K. (2008). Information content and correlated observation errors. Int. J. Num. Meth. Fluid, 56(8), pp 1521-1527 doi: 10.1002/fld.1636
  32. Livings, D.M., Dance, S.L. and Nichols N.K. (2008) Unbiased ensemble square root filters. Physica D 237(8) pp 1021-1028
  33. S.L.Dance, E.Climent and M.R. Maxey (2004) Collision barrier effects on the bulk flow in a homogeneous random suspension. Phys. Fluids,16(3) pp 829-831
  34. S.L.Dance and M.R. Maxey (2003) Particle density stratification in transient sedimentation. Phys. Rev. E 68, 031403
  35. S.L. Dance and M.R. Maxey (2003) Incorporation of lubrication effects into the Force-Coupling Method for particulate two-phase flow, J. Comp. Phys, 189(1) pp212-238.

    Review articles and meeting reports (Peer reviewed)

  36. Janjic, T., Bormann, N., Bocquet, M., Carton, J. A., Cohn, S. E., Dance, S. L., Losa, S. N., Nichols, N. K., Potthast, R., Waller, J. A. and Weston, P. (2017), On the representation error in data assimilation. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.. Accepted. doi:10.1002/qj.3130
  37. Browne, P. A., Charlton-Perez, C. and Dance, S. L. (2014), RMetS Special Interest Group Meeting: high resolution data assimilation. Atmosph. Sci. Lett., 15: 354-357. doi: 10.1002/asl2.512
  38. S.L. Dance (2004) Issues in high resolution limited area data assimilation for quantitative precipitation forecasting. Physica D, 196(1-2) pp 1-27

    Discussion papers

  39. Dance, S.L. and Q. P. Zou, (2010) HESS Opinions "Ensembles, uncertainty and flood prediction" Hydrol. Earth. Syst. Sci. Discuss., 7,pp 3591-3611, doi: 10.5194/hessd-7-3591-2010
  40. Rennie, S. J., A. J. Illingworth, and S. L. Dance, (2010) On the differentiation of ground clutter and insects using single-polarisation C-band radars. Atm. Meas. Tech. Discuss., 3, pp 1843-1860 doi:10.5194/amtd-3-1843-2010

    Peer reviewed conference proceedings

  41. Scott, T. R., Smith, P.J., Dance, S. L., Mason, D.C., Baines, M.J., Nichols, N.K., Horsburgh, K.J., Sweby, P.K. and Lawless, A.S. (2008) Data assimilation for morphodynamic prediction and predictability. In: Coastal Engineering 2008 Proceedings of the 31st International Conference. World Scientific, pp. 2386-2398. doi: 10.1142/9789814277426_0197
  42. Dance, S.L., Livings, D.M. and Nichols, N. K. (2007) Unbiased ensemble square root filters. PAMM - Proceedings in Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 7 (1). pp. 1026505-1026506. doi: DOI: 10.1002/pamm.200700603

    Magazine articles

  43. D.C. Mason, J. Garcia-Pintado, S.L. Dance, (2014) Improving flood inundation monitoring and modelling using remotely sensed data Civ. Eng. Surv., February 2014, 34-36.

    Technical reports

    (Note that University of Reading Mathematics Reports and Numerical Analysis Reports are available online)
  44. E.S. Cooper, S.L. Dance, N.K. Nichols, P.J. Smith and J. Garcia-Pintado. Improving Inundation Forecasting using Data Assimilation. Mathematics Report 1/2016, University of Reading
  45. Clifford, D., Dance S.L. and Hogan, R.J., 2D advection in an idealised convection model, Mathematics Report 2/2011, University of Reading
  46. Raoult, N. and Dance, S.L., (2011) Flood modelling and data assimilation, Mathematics Report 1/2011, University of Reading
  47. Smith, P.J., Dance, S.L.,and Nichols, N.K. (2010) A hybrid sequential data assimilation scheme for model state and parameter estimation Mathematics Report 2/2010, University of Reading
  48. Smith,P.J., Dance, S.L., and Nichols, N.K. (2009) Data assimilation for morphodynamic model parameter estimation: a hybrid approach Mathematics Report 2/2009, University of Reading
  49. Stewart,L.M., Cameron,J., Dance, S.L., English, S., Eyre, J, and Nichols, N.K. (2009), Mathematics Report 1/2009, University of Reading
  50. Smith, P.J., Baines, M.J., Dance, S.L., Nichols, N.K., and Scott, T.R. (2008) Data Assimilation for Parameter Estimation with Application to a Simple Morphodynamic Model, Mathematics Report 2/2008, University of Reading
  51. Rennie, S.J. and Dance, S.L., (2008) Radial Velocity Assimilation and Experiments with a Simple Shallow Water Model, Mathematics Report 1/2008, University of Reading
  52. Smith, P.J., Baines,M.J., Dance, S.L., Nichols, N.K. and Scott, T.R. (2007) Simple Models of Changing Bathymetry with Data Assimilation, Numerical Analysis Report, 10/2007 University of Reading
  53. Stewart, L.M., Dance, S.L., and Nichols, N.K. (2007) Correlated observation errors in data assimilation Numerical Analysis Report 3/2007 , University of Reading
  54. Baxter, G.M., Dance, S.L, Lawless, A.S., Nichols, N.K., and Ballard, S.P., (2007) Towards Data Assimilation for High Resolution Nested Models Numerical Analysis Report 2/2007, University of Reading
  55. Baxter, G.M., Dance, S.L, Lawless, A.S., and Nichols, N.K., (2006) Scale Analysis of Observational Information in Data Assimilation, Numerical Analysis Report 11/2006 University of Reading
  56. Livings, D.M., Dance, S.L. and Nichols N.K. (2006) Unbiased ensemble square root filters. Numerical Analysis Report 06/06, University of Reading
  57. Stewart, L.M., Dance, S.L., and Nichols, N.K. (2006) Information Content of Spatially Correlated Observation Errors. Numerical Analysis Report 04/06, University of Reading
  58. Dance, S.L. (2003) Issues in high resolution limited area data assimilation for quantitative precipitation forecasts. Forecasting Research Technical Report No. 420. (Also known as Joint Centre for Mesoscale Meteorology Report No. 139.) Met Office, UK
  59. Dance, S.L. (1999) Forecasting Improvement via Optimal Choice of Sites for Observations: A Toy Model . In Astrophysical and Geophysical Flows as Dynamical Systems; 1998 Summer Study Program in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Neil J. Balmforth, Director, Woods Hole Oceanog. Inst. Tech Rept., WHOI 99-01

    Thesis

  60. Dance, S.L. (2002) Particle Sedimentation in Viscous Fluids. PhD thesis, Brown University, Providence RI USA

Invited Conference Presentations

S.L. Dance, I. Roulstone and A. C. Lorenc (2003) A review of the theoretical potential and limitations of the Ensemble Kalman Filter and 4D-VAR. EMS workshop on mathematical techniques for improving the forecasting of hazardous weather, Reading, UK. Invited presentation

S. L. Dance, M. Cullen and S. Ballard (2004) Incorporation of surface friction into the control variable transform. SRNWP Workshop, Met Office, Exeter Invited presentation

S.L. Dance (2005) Towards nonlinear data assimilation for hazardous weather prediction. Applied Inverse Problems Conference, Cirencester Invited presentation

S.L.Dance, D. M. Livings and N. K. Nichols (2005) Formulations of the Ensemble Kalman Filter and Bias CTCD Data Assimilation Workshop, Edinburgh Invited presentation

S.L.Dance (2006) Data assimilation theory and practice: lessons learned from the atmosphere. Carbon Fusion Workshop, Edinburgh Invited presentation

S.L.Dance, D.M. Livings, N.K. Nichols (2006) Unbiased ensemble Kalman filters. Mathematics of Data Assimilation Workshop, University of Warwick Invited presentation

S. L. Dance (2008). Data assimilation based on ensembles. ICFD workshop on Mathematics and Applications of Data Assimilation. Reading Invited presentation

S.L. Dance (2008) The Ensemble Kalman Filter: a State Estimation Method for Hazardous Weather Prediction, SAMSI Opening workshop for Program on Sequential Monte Carlo Methods, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina USA. Invited presentation

Dance, S.L. (2008) Advances in DA for convection-resolving forecasts, NCAS/NCEO meeting defining THORPEX-UK research, Royal Cambridge HotelInvited presentation

S. L. Dance, T. R. Scott, M. J. Baines, A. S. Lawless, D. C. Mason, N. K. Nichols, R. Proctor, P. J. Smith, P. K. Sweby, (2008) Changing coastlines: data assimilation for morphodynamic prediction and predictability, HYDRALAB Composite Modelling Workshop, The Deep, Hull Invited presentation

[Some missing data]

S.L. Dance (2016) Invited mini-workshop on Data Assimilation, Maths Foresees General Assembly, University of Edinburgh, September 2016.

S.L. Dance (2017) Invited mini-tutorial on Data Assimilation, SIAM Conference on Dynamical Systems, Snowbird, Utah, USA, May 2017.

S.L. Dance, H.L. Cloke, S. P. Ballard (2017) Flooding from Intense Rainfall,10th HyMeX Workshop, 4-7 July 2017, Barcelona, Spain Invited presentation

External/Invited Seminars

(1998) Forecasting Improvement via Optimal Choice of Sites for Observations: A Toy Model. GFD Summer Study Program, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, MA, USA

(2002) Particle sedimentation in viscous fluids. DEAS, Harvard University,Cambridge, MA, USA

(2003) Go with the flow! Characterising flow dependent background errors in data assimilation.
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA
Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology, NCAR, Boulder, CO USA
EMC, NCEP, Camp Springs, MD, USA

(2004) Nonlinearity and Data Assimliation.
Neural Computing Research Group, Aston University, Birmingham

(2005) Towards nonlinear data assimilation: estimating initial conditions for hazardous weather prediction. Dept of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Surrey.

(2006) The ensemble Kalman filter: a state estimation method for hazardous weather prediction
Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford.
Dept of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool

(2007) Changing Coastlines: data assimilation for morphodynamic prediction and predictability (with T. R. Scott)
HR Wallingford

(2010) Maximizing the value of observations for data assimilation across a range of scales, Inaugural seminar, University of Reading
Advances in data assimilation for convection-resolving forecasts, NCAS Thorpex Meeting, Cambridge

(2012) Data assimilation, parameter estimation and coastal sediment modelling
70th Birthday Celebration for Prof Nancy Nichols, University of Reading

(2013) Where Mathematics and Meteorology meet: Maximizing the value of observations for data assimilation across a range of scales
University of Surrey
LMS Women in Mathematics Day, Isaac Newton Institute, Cambridge

(2014) FRANC: Forecasting Rainfall exploiting new data Assimilation techniques and Novel observations of Convection, NCAS Flash Flooding Symposium, University of Oxford
Correlated Observation Errors in Data Assimilation, ESA Workshop on Correlated Observation Errors in Data Assimilation, University of Reading

(2015) Correlated observation errors in data assimilation, Math and Climate Research Network Joint Data Assimilation Seminar (webinar to international network including University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill and Tata Institute of Fundamental Research)

(2016) Challenges of urban data assimilation, (with Sue Grimmond), Mathematics of Planet Earth Seminars, University of Reading/Imperial College

(2017) End to endd flood forecasting: a mathematical tour, University of Leeds, Department of Applied Mathematics

Related professional activities

Workshop organization

  • Joint organiser with Andrew Stuart, Amos Lawless and Nancy Nichols for Mathematics of Data Assimilation workshop, University of Warwick, May 2006
  • Organiser of workshop on "Data assimilation for hydrometeorological hazard prediction" at Royal Meteorological Society 2009 conference
  • Organiser with Qingping Zou (University of Plymouth) of NERC FREE Ensemble workshop, 15,612 funding from NERC
  • Joint organizer for RMetS Data Assimilation Special Interest Group Meeting ,April 2013
  • Joint organizer for 2014 workshop on correlated observation errors with funding from ESA
  • Co-Convenor for European Meteorological Society Conference session on Data Assimilation (2013,2014,2015,2016, 2017)
  • Joint organizer of two workshops at Royal Meteorological Society 2016 Conference, Manchester.

Print media

Featured in NERC Planet Earth Magazine Autumn 2006 Supporting Research Careers

Featured in University of Reading Research Review, Issue 10, Summer 2010

Reviewing activities

Guest editor for special issues of 'Advances in Science and Research' (Open access peer reviewed proceedings of the European Meteorological Society) Refereeing journal articles/conference submissions:
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
  • Physica D
  • Ocean Modelling
  • Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS)
  • SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing (SISC)
  • Journal of Geophysical Research- Atmospheres (JGR)
  • Meteorological Zeitschrift
  • Ocean Dynamics
  • Tellus-A
  • Biogeosciences
  • International Conference on Flood Resilience Experiences in Asia and Europe
  • Inverse Problems
  • Journal of the Royal Statistical Society
  • Monthly Weather Review
  • Atmosphere

Member of NERC peer review college since 2014

Member of EPSRC grant review panels

Refereeing grant applications for EPSRC, NERC, British Council, NSF(USA), Irish Research Council

NERC SCENARIO DTP Selection Board member since 2015.

PhD examination

PhD examiner for 4 internal candidates and 3 external candidates (University of Oxford, University of Warwick, University of Leeds), independent chair for 1 internal candidate.

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