Predictability

The consequences of poor weather forecasts range from minor annoyances to severe socio-economic impacts. My research group have examined predictability on scales ranging from those associated with individual clouds to those associated with weather regimes (persistent weather patterns). Some highlights of our published papers in this area are now given. We have demonstrated that the nature of the predictability of convection (location vs. intensity) is controlled by the larger-scale environment (Done et al., 2011). We have identified the physical processes leading to forecast error growth at the convective scale and the importance of switching of the model-diagnosed boundary-layer type (Leoncini et al., 2010) and have identified that forecast errors arise through inclusion of observations positioned near steep orography (Irvine et al., 2011). Finally, we have demonstrated that the ensemble forecast predictions (forecasts comprised of multiple likely realizations) of three of the major worldwide operational forecast centres of regime transitions (changes in weather patterns) are consistent with analyses (our best guess of reality) (Frame et al., 2011).