Emily Black

I am a core member of NCAS-Climate staff within the land-surface group.

My work focuses on variability and change in the hydrological cycle, and the way that people perceive and experience the associated hazards. I have strong interests in African rainfall, and lead the TAMSAT programme. TAMSAT stands for Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite data and ground-based observations. Within TAMSAT we provide a real time rainfall product to stakeholders in Africa. We also carry out research about variability and change in the African climate, using our new temporally consistent product TARCAT, which provides ground calibrated satellite rainfall estimates for the whole of Africa for a 30 year period (1983-present).

I also lead the Integrated Carbon and Land Management for Poverty Alleviation (ICWALPA - a programme framework project funded under ESPA). ICWALPA aims to develop a modeling framework for assessing the environmental and economic sustainability of land management initiatives, with particular focus on energy crop cultivation in Ghana and Brazil. ICWALPA started in October 2010, and will last two years.

I am co-ordinator of PAGODA (a major consortium project funded under NERC's changing water cycle programme). I am the co-leader of PAGODA's work package on Policy relevant metrics of the changing water cycle (with Peter Stott). PAGODA aims to make reliable projections of the changing water cycle through a process-based detection, attribution and prediction. PAGODA started in January 2011 and will last three years.

Key publications (full publicaton list)

Black, E., S. Mithen, B. Hoskins and R. Cornforth (2010) Water and Society: Past, present and future London: Royal Society

Mithen, S. and E. Black (forthcoming in early 2011) Water, Life and Civilisation: Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press

Black, E. (2011) The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and European circulation regimes on the daily to interannual variability of winter precipitation in Israel International Journal of Climatology

Black, E., D. Brayshaw and C. Rambeau (2010) Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 368: 5173-5184

Black, E. and R. Sutton (2007) The influence of oceanic conditions on the hot European summer of 2003 Climate dynamics 28: 53-66

Gissila, T., E. Black, D. I. F. Grimes and J. M. Slingo (2004) Seasonal forecasting of the Ethiopian summer rains International Journal of Climatology 24: 1345-1358

Black, E., M. Blackburn, G. Harrison and J. Methven (2004) Factors that contributed to the European Heatwave in Summer 2003 Weather 59: 217-223

Black, E., J. Slingo and K. R. Sperber (2003) An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal East Africa and Indian Ocean SST Monthly Weather Review 131: 74-94

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