Data Assimilation Meetings at Reading

Date Meeting type Speakers
22 April 2015
Agric 1L14
Invited speaker Doug Cresswell, Alan Cooper and Catherine Villaret (HR Wallingford)
Data Assimilation for tidal surge forecasting and uncertainty analysis for morphodynamics modelling
Accurate forecasting of storm surges is an important issue in the coastal areas around the North Sea. Over the past centuries we have seen catastrophes such as the flood of 1953 which caused considerable loss of life as meteorological effects forced water levels to exceed 5.6 metres above mean sea level in places. This talk describes work by Reading University MSc student Rowan Thainuruk using the TELEMAC-2D finite element system to model the water movement in the North sea linked by MPI to a data assimilation tool from Reading University. Subsequent work by HR Wallingford has found promising results, but advice is required for the further development of the system. The second part of the talk will present some ungoing work on uncertainty analysis using Automatic Differentiation in collaboration with the University of Aachen. Morphodynamics models rely on the use of empirical models and require a large amount of input parameters which are difficult to measure in situ. We present here a first order method to quantify uncertainty and sensitivity using Algorithmic Differentiation. This method is found to be much more efficient and to give similar results than Monte Carlo simulations assuming linear behaviour.

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