Stratosphere and Climate pages : On-going projects : UoR, Dept Of Meteorology

On-going projects

The following table shows groups who are working with S2S data to investigate the role of the stratosphere in sub-seasonal predicability. If you would like to add you project to the list please send your name and institute along with a short project description to the project lead, Andrew Charlton-Perez, using the contact us link below.

Project or GroupLeadProposed diagnostics or work plan
University of ReadingAndrew Charlton-PerezA multi-model analysis to study the impact of strong vortex on sub-seasonal predictability. We will make composites of forecasts from models initialised during periods in which the stratospheric vortex is strong and when it is close to climatology. We will use large-scale dynamical fields (Z, T, U) along with surface climate parameters (T2m, precip.)
Seoul National University,KoreaSeok-Woo SonInfluence of QBO on the MJO prediction skill: Using long-term reforecast data sets, the modulation of the MJO prediction skill by the QBO will be examined. The prediction skill and ensemble spread will be quantitatively compared for the westerly and easterly QBO winters.
Seoul National University,KoreaSeok-Woo SonSSW prediction skill: Extending SNAP phase 1, SSW prediction skill will be examined by analysing reforecast data sets. The models which are initialized at least 4 times a month will be primarily analysed.
Finnish Meteorological Institute, FinlandAlexey KarpechkoComparison of dynamical and statistical forecasts during periods of strong and week polar vortex: We will select periods with anomalous polar vortex state (either strong or weak) when statistical forecasts of surface climate are known to have skill, and compare forecasts from models initialized during these periods with statistical forecasts to estimate additional value of dynamical forecasts. Large-scale dynamical fields (Z, U) and surface parameters (T2M, precip) will be used.
Hebrew University of Jerusalem, IsraelChaim GarfinkelA multi-model analysis to study the impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation on vortex predictability. We will make composites of forecasts from models initialised during periods in which the MJO is in its various phases and when tropical convection is disorganized. We will use large-scale dynamical fields (Z, T, U) along with surface climate parameters (T2m, precip.)
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, GermanyDaniella DomeisenInfluence of ENSO and other tropical variability on stratospheric predictability and stratosphere-troposphere coupling.
NOAA ESRL, USALantao Sun/Judith PerlwitzWe aim at improving our understanding of the role of the stratosphere on the predictability of the NAO and related extremes on sub-seasonal timescale in the context of the ENSO-NAO connection through a suite of model simulations with NCAR's "low-top" and "higher-top" versions of the CESM CAM5. The outcome of this project also includes providing the scientific community with a thoroughly tested and evaluated stratosphere-resolving sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast system and dataset based on the CESM.
Colorado State University, USACory Baggett/Elizabeth Barnes/Eric Maloney/Bryan MundhenkInvestigate the predictability of atmospheric river "hit probabilities" based on knowledge of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and its effects on tropical variability (i.e. Madden Julian Oscillation).
University at Albany, State University of New York, USAAndrea Lopez LangUsing both SNAP phase 1 and S2S data, the analysis will examine forecast errors in physical processes (e.g., latent heating) associated with documented tropospheric precursors to stratospheric regime changes and their role in the growth of errors in the dynamical mechanisms (e.g., wave fluxes) of the troposphere-stratosphere coupling.
University of Oklahoma (Collaborators at Colorado State University & NOAA CPC)Jason FurtadoInvestigate using both the Madden-Julian Oscillation MJO and the state of the stratospheric polar vortex as subseasonal boreal winter predictors for North America / Europe. We will select dates with MJO events in different phases and associated with different states of the stratospheric polar vortex (i.e. "strong" versus "weak") and compare the teleconnected responses and associated dynamics (wave fluxes, wave breaking, blocking patterns) to just using one of the predictors. Results will indicate the possible modulation effect of the stratospheric vortex on MJO teleconnections. Analyses will be done in reanalysis and in a multi-model suite of subseasonal operational models to assess skill and reproducibility.