How climate change could mean more jet turbulence

Sean Rossman | USA Today | 6 April 2017

Admit it. No matter how many times you've taken a flight, the quick up-and-down, side-to-side jolts brought by airplane turbulence can cause a tinge of panic.

Now new research has found turbulence could become more severe, enough to heave passengers and crew across an airplane, as more carbon dioxide seeps into our atmosphere.

Researchers form the University of Reading found severe and moderate-to-severe turbulence will more than double as a result of expected increases in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

The research, published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, used supercomputer simulations to test how turbulence will change at 39,000 feet when the levels of carbon dioxide doubles. Author Dr. Paul Williams said that level is expected by century's end.

Williams' research found severe turbulence will increase by 149%, moderate-to-severe by 127%, light-to-moderate by 75% and light turbulence by 59%.

The reason: Climate change is strengthening wind shears, or changes in wind speed or direction, one of the major causes of turbulence. The Federal Aviation Administration notes turbulence also is caused by atmospheric pressure, air around mountains and thunderstorms among other triggers.

"For most passengers, light turbulence is nothing more than an annoying inconvenience that reduces their comfort levels, but for nervous fliers even light turbulence can be distressing," he said. "Even the most seasoned frequent fliers may be alarmed at the prospect of a 149% increase in severe turbulence, which frequently hospitalizes air travelers and flight attendants around the world."

Turbulence typically injures dozens of people annually, according to FAA statistics. The most recent statistics found show the year with the highest number of turbulence injuries in the past 15 years was 2009, when 80 passengers and 26 crew members were injured by turbulence. In the most recent year provided, 2015, there were 21 turbulence injuries.

Last year, severe turbulence hospitalized 12 people on a flight from Houston to London.

But the study said the increases do not mean we'll see more turbulence injuries. Williams notes other factors affect how bumpy an airplane ride will be such as forecasting that allows pilots to avoid turbulence and how planes withstand turbulence.