Fasten your seatbelts - climate change doubles turbulence risk to aircraft

University of East Anglia press release - Mon, 8 Apr 2013

The aviation industry has long been accused of contributing to climate change. Now scientists from the University of East Anglia (UEA) have found that climate change will affect aviation - by increasing air turbulence and causing flights to get bumpier.

Researchers from the University of Reading and UEA analysed supercomputer simulations of the atmospheric jet stream over the North Atlantic Ocean.

The study, published today in the journal Nature Climate Change, is the first to examine the future of aviation turbulence.

It reveals that the chances of encountering significant turbulence will increase by between 40 and 170 per cent by the middle of this century. The most likely outcome is a doubling of the airspace containing significant turbulence at any time. The average strength of turbulence will also increase by between 10 and 40 per cent.

Dr Manoj Joshi, from UEA's School of Environmental Sciences, said: "This research shows that climate change will cause more frequent air turbulence and more bumpy flights in just a few decades."

As well as being an uncomfortable and sometimes frightening experience, air turbulence causes injury for hundreds of passengers and aircrew every year. It also causes delays and damage to planes with a total cost of around £100 million each year.

Dr Joshi said: "Our research focused on clear-air turbulence in winter. This is especially problematic to airliners, because clear-air turbulence is invisible to pilots and satellites, and winter is when it peaks.

"Flights may need to be re-routed more frequently in future to avoid turbulence. This would increase fuel consumption and pollution, cause more airport delays and push up ticket prices."

Dr Paul Williams from the University of Reading added: "Aviation is partly responsible for changing the climate in the first place. It is ironic that the climate looks set to exact its revenge by creating a more turbulent atmosphere for flying."

The study, 'Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change' by Paul D Williams and Manoj M. Joshi is published in the journal Nature Climate Change on April 8, 2013.