Climate change 'to increase turbulence, flight times and fares'

Soo Kim, travel writer | The Telegraph | 12 May 2016

Climate change will make turbulence more common and increase transatlantic flight times, leading to more delays and higher fares, a new report has claimed.

While the impact of aviation on global warming has long been recognised, "it is becoming increasingly clear that the interaction is two-way and that climate change has important consequences for aviation", according to the study by Dr Paul Williams from the University of Reading.

His report, published earlier this year in Environmental Research Letters, examined flights between London and New York, one of the busiest routes in the world. It suggested that the jet steam could become 15 per cent stronger as a result of rising temperatures, making into 80 per cent more likely that westbound flights will take more than seven hours, while potentially making conditions too turbulent for travel at certain times. Conversely, eastbound flight times would significantly shorten.

Jet stream winds are found around nine to 16 kilometres above the Earth's surface and can reach speeds of up to 200mph, so already have a major impact on flight times. In January 2015 a Boeing 777 operated by British Airways flew from New York to London in a record time of five hours and 16 minutes.

Aircraft on transatlantic routes were collectively projected to "be airborne for an extra 2,000 hours a year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel" and emit an "extra 70 million kilograms of carbon dioxide" - the equivalent of total annual emissions from 7,100 average homes in Britain.

Every extra two minutes in the air is said to use approximately 100 gallons of fuel per aircraft and cost an additional $20 million annually.

"Clear-air turbulence changes significantly within the transatlantic flight corridor when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is doubled," a study on winter transatlantic aviation turbulence by Dr Williams and Dr Manoj M Joshi from the University of East Anglia first revealed back in 2013.

"At cruise altitudes within 50-75N and 10-60W in winter, most clear-air turbulence measures show a 10 to 40 per cent increase in the median strength of turbulence and a 40 to 170 per cent increase in the frequency of occurrence of moderate-or-greater turbulence," the report stated, predicting that climate change will lead to bumpier transatlantic flights by 2050.

"Clear-air turbulence is especially difficult to avoid, because it cannot be seen by pilots or detected by satellites or on-board radar," it said.

Turbulence is said to be the cause of most weather-related aircraft incidents and commercial aircraft face "moderate-or-greater turbulence tens of thousands of times" annually worldwide, "injuring probably hundreds of passengers (occasionally fatally)", the report in 2013 claimed, while its structural damage on the planes costs airlines "tens of millions of dollars" in repairs.

"Any increase in turbulence would make flying more uncomfortable and increase the risk to passengers and crew. Re-routing flights to avoid stronger patches of turbulence could increase fuel consumption and emissions of atmospheric pollutants, make delays at airports more common, and ultimately push up ticket prices," it added.

Last week, a video recorded on board Etihad flight EY 474 showed terrified passengers whose plane encountered "severe and unexpected turbulence" during a journey from Abu Dhabi to Jakarta.

The clip, posted to Facebook by Dewi Rachmayani showed fliers gripping their seats and some throwing their arms in the air to pray.

The user wrote online that she saw people being thrown from their seats and hitting the ceiling and floor of the cabin. An air steward who did not wish to be named reportedly said: "I have been a flight attendant for 15 years, this is the first time I've experienced something like this."