Fasten your seatbelts: Climate change to increase flight turbulence

Robert Bridge, Russia Today
Published time: April 09, 2013 09:49

Air travel will get rockier as global warming worsens, according to a British study, but airlines may be unprepared for the changes, which include more passenger injuries, pricier tickets and longer travel times.

Air travelers may be more inclined to accept the airsickness bags handed out by airlines before takeoff. A report published in the journal Nature Climate Change predicts that one effect of a warming planet is that international flights will get more turbulent by the middle of this century.

Turbulence during transatlantic flights will occur with greater frequency and intensity if carbon dioxide emissions double by 2050 as the International Energy Agency forecasts, the report warns.

CO2 is recognized as one of the main greenhouse gases responsible for man-made global warming.

Using computer models of the atmospheric jet stream, the authors predicted the possible effects on the busy North Atlantic flight corridor, where some 600 commercial aircraft travel daily between Europe and North America.

The study revealed that the chances of aircraft encountering significant turbulence will increase between 40 percent and 170 percent. Meanwhile, the average intensity of turbulence will rise between 10 percent and 40 percent.

The study provided a grim look at the worsening flight conditions transatlantic passengers will have to face aside from the other inconveniences associated with long-distance air travel, like lost luggage and jet lag.

"Air turbulence does more than just interrupt the service of in-flight drinks," read a statement from lead study author Paul Williams, a researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Science, at the University of Reading. "It injures hundreds of passengers and aircrew every year -- sometimes fatally. It also causes delays and damage to planes."

Similar to a driver who goes out of his way to avoid a pothole in the road, pilots will also be forced to make wide detours around pockets of severe turbulence, thus burning up additional jet fuel, as well as increasing flight delays.

"Flight paths may need to become more convoluted to avoid patches of turbulence that are stronger and more frequent, in which case journey times will lengthen and fuel consumption and emissions will increase," the authors wrote.

The study placed the total price tag of such disruptions at about £100 million ($150 million dollars) annually.

Ironically, air travel is one of the primary sources of carbon dioxide emissions, yet this is the first comprehensive study on the direct effects of climate change in the industry.

"Aviation is partly responsible for changing the climate in the first place. It is ironic that the climate looks set to exact its revenge by creating a more turbulent atmosphere for flying," Williams said.

The airline industry is planning to halve its net CO2 emissions by mid-century from 2005 levels through the introduction of new technology, alternative energy sources and increased efficiency.