Climate Change to Intensify Airplane Turbulence
Not-so-smooth high-altitude cruises are expected, thanks to climate change.

Rodale News
April 10, 2013
By Leah Zerbe

Climate change has an impact on so many aspects of everyday life. It fuels the expansion of pests and diseases like West Nile virus and Lyme disease, promotes intense pollen production that makes allergy sufferers miserable, and now, it seems, climate change will also make airplane travel more gut-wrenching.

Running atmospheric computer models, British researchers found a connection between climate change and turbulence, and they predict that the average strength of turbulence will increase by 10 to 40 percent by 2050. The amount of airspace containing significant turbulence will most likely double, too. "The main takeaway message for flyers is to expect less-comfortable flights in the coming decades, with the seatbelt sign switched on perhaps twice as often," explains study coauthor and atmospheric scientist Paul Williams, PhD, a Royal Society research fellow at the University of Reading.

Bumpier flights are expected because climate change isn't warming the earth uniformly. Case in point? The Arctic region is warming faster than the tropics, and these temperature differences drive atmospheric winds, including the jet stream. "Change the temperature differences, and the winds change, too," Williams says. "Climate change is strengthening the jet stream, and these stronger winds are making the atmosphere more vulnerable to the instability that causes turbulence."

The International Panel on Climate Change has identified a connection between climate destabilization and turbulence on flights, too, suggesting heat from warming waters could cause more upper-atmospheric disturbances.

Bumpier rides could translate into more bumps and bruises. The Federal Aviation Administration lists airplane turbulence as the No. 1 cause of in-flight injuries. Between injuries and airplane damage, turbulence currently costs the airlines of the world tens of millions of dollars.

Climate change-related turbulence is also a little trickier for pilots to avoid. Satellites and on-plane radar systems don't pick up this "clear air" turbulence. And as atmospheric turbulence increases over the coming decades, flyers can expect longer flights, resulting in more fuel consumption and climate-change-fueling emissions.

"Aviation is partly responsible for changing the climate, but our findings show for the first time how climate change could affect aviation," Williams and his team noted.

No matter what's causing turbulence on your flights, you can protect yourself from injury by choosing a window or middle seat to keep out of the path of debris falling from the overhead compartment. Falling stowed items account for 10,000 aviation injuries a year, according to the Flight Safety Foundation.

Check out these other flight safety tips to survive airplane turbulence unscathed.