Turbulence ahead: Climate change could make flying even worse

Oriana Pawlyk | Politico | 17 August 2021

More than a third of serious injuries sustained on airlines are caused by turbulence, a situation that's likely to worsen as climate change forces even more bumpy flights, making an already painful process even worse.

Data released last week by federal investigators shows injuries forced by turbulence - broken bones, bleeding or other trauma requiring a hospital stay - represented some 38 percent of serious injuries sustained on board airplanes from 2009-2018, with flight attendants at special risk. So far, the data doesn't show a measurable increase, but scientists predict that will change as the Earth continues to warm.

Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science in the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading in the U.K. who has co-authored a few studies on the topic, said their research shows an "on average 149 percent increase in the amount of severe turbulence later this century on transatlantic routes and similar results around the world." The data investigators examined shows just over 100 serious injuries reported as attributed to turbulence, but that number would likely rise as Earth's warming trend creates choppier air.

He cited transformations in the jet stream, specifically within wind shear, a particularly dangerous condition involving a rapid change of wind speed or direction over the North Atlantic. The change is rooted in the intensification of clear air turbulence, which isn't associated with clouds, storms or particular kinds of weather, gives no visual cues and is undetectable by onboard aircraft radar, he said.

So far, the Federal Aviation Administration's data doesn't show a significant increase in turbulence-related injuries, tracking seven serious injuries, defined as those requiring a 48-hour hospital stay, reported since 2017, according to an agency source who asked for anonymity so they could speak freely about ongoing research efforts. And the National Transportation Safety Board data released last week dating to 1989 also doesn't show a clear trend, but rather sporadic peaks and valleys.

But according to Williams, wind shear has increased by 15 percent since satellites began observing the phenomenon in the 1970s, "so it's inevitable that any increase in wind shear will cause more clear air turbulence," he said of the correlating data.

Pilots' best defense against turbulence is to steer around it, but "as airspace gets more crowded, there are a few escape routes from turbulence," Williams added.

Prior to the Covid-19 travel slowdown, nearly 1,800 flights headed to Europe crossing the Atlantic on a daily basis. As air traffic levels increase, "it's going to be harder to avoid the turbulence," Williams said.

That doesn't mean it will become unsafe to fly - diligent seat belt use mitigates most of the danger - but it will be perhaps more unpleasant, Williams said. Additionally, improvements in flight systems and newly manufactured aircraft entering the commercial inventory all help blunt some of the effects of turbulence. For instance, he said "more modern aircraft like the 787 Dreamliner respond less strongly to turbulence than the older planes."

The NTSB, which investigates aviation accidents, suggested that for now the main issue is one of insufficient weather reporting that flight crews can use, especially when there's no advance warning of turbulence. The FAA source agreed, saying the short-term solution to dealing with turbulence is more information.

Responding to the study, the FAA said it is encouraging pilots to file more reports to identify weather conditions, telling air traffic controllers to capitalize on "automation and data displays to route aircraft around weather systems," among other efforts to keep personnel and passengers safe.

"We're looking to see what kind of technological improvements we can make to the reporting system so that pilots can report turbulence digitally by entering it into a computer, rather than having to do it over the radio," the FAA source said.

Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA, told POLITICO that the organization provided recommendations to NTSB on how it can improve regulations and policies that could help minimize flight attendant injuries, given the group is most at risk with more than 80 percent of flight attendants suffering from the mishaps.

"Turbulence is a serious workplace hazard for flight attendants," Nelson said. Nelson and Williams, the atmospheric scientist, were in agreement that keeping a seat belt on whenever possible will reduce the chances of getting bumps or bruises midair.

"One significant issue the report supports is having flight attendants seated with their seat belts fastened at a higher altitude in the descent phase of flight to reduce the rate of flight attendant injuries due to turbulence," she said.

Long term, the FAA is working with the National Weather Service on turbulence forecasts, the FAA source said, to improve prediction through computer modeling.

But none of those contemplate actions to reduce the effects of climate change, which Williams argued should top the list.

“Taking action to mitigate against turbulence, I would have thought that would be the strongest motivation, really, but it doesn't seem to be being acknowledged" in the NTSB's data, Williams said. "So that in itself is a bit frustrating."