40C summers in the capital, government study forecasts

London Evening Standard, 18 June 2009

by Mark Prigg

London could regularly have summer temperatures of up to 40C (105F) by 2080, according to a highly authoritative report on climate change.

UK Climate Projections 09, unveiled today by Environment Secretary Hilary Benn, says temperatures could rise on average by between two and eight degrees celsius in London by mid century.

Sea levels are also expected to rise by as much as 36cm. The report says flooding, storms, droughts and heatwaves are all to become more common as a result of rising temperatures, with negative impacts on health, lifestyles and the countryside.

The research, led by the Met Office's Hadley Centre, is the most accurate produced yet.

It breaks the country down into 25km squares and makes predictions for what is likely to happen to the climate over 30-year periods.

"Climate change is going to transform the way we live," said Mr Benn. "These projections show us the future we need to avoid, and the future we need to plan for."

The Government is publishing a "five-point plan" to cope with the impacts of climate change and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Summer rainfall is likely to decrease by more than a fifth (22%) in the South East and Yorkshire and Humber the report says, while winter rain could increase by 16% in the North West.

More rain is likely to fall on the wettest days, leading to a higher risk of flooding, the climate projections study led by scientists from the Met Office Hadley Centre revealed.

Launching the report, Mr Benn said: "There is no doubt about it - climate change is the biggest challenge facing the world today. Climate change is already happening - the hottest ten years on record globally have all been since 1990.

"This landmark scientific evidence shows not only that we need to tackle the causes of climate change but also that we must deal with the consequences.

"The projections will allow us to make sure we have a resilient infrastructure to cope - whether it's the design of school buildings or protection of new power plants, maintaining the supply of drinking water, adjusting ways of farming for drier summers or understanding how our homes and businesses will have to adapt."

Leading scientists have also backed the report.

Dr Paul Williams, Climate Scientist at the University of Reading, said: "Sceptics will no doubt question how scientists can confidently predict the climate of 2080, when we cannot even forecast next week's weather with any skill.

"But climate prediction and weather forecasting are completely different problems. For example, we can say with confidence that July is always warmer than January, simply because more sunlight is received.

Similarly, we can say with confidence that the 2080s will be warmer than the 2000s, simply because of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases."

Professor John Beddington, the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser, said: "We now know that some further climate change over the next two to three decades is already unavoidable due to past emissions.

"But what the projections also show is that strong mitigation action now can start to make a real difference by 2050 and lead to very different climate outcomes by the 2080s."

Professor Bob Watson, Defra Chief Scientific Adviser, said: "The UK Climate Projections are the best science to date to help us understand the complexities of the UK climate.

"They are a world first in presenting how probable the level of potential climate change will be against emissions scenarios and will be invaluable to help us plan for a changing future.

"They provide a stark message - some climate change is inevitable but we must act now to limit the severity of that change."