Why Severe Turbulence On Flights Could Be Much Worse In The Future

Eric Mack | Forbes | 6 April 2017

The practical impacts of climate change can be hard to pinpoint because of the large scales of time and geography over which changes are occurring. But more frequent jolts in mid-air could be one way in which individuals will soon literally feel the effects.

A new scientific study says that severe turbulence could become two to three times more common later this century when there is twice as much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

"Our new study paints the most detailed picture yet of how aircraft turbulence will respond to climate change," says author Dr. Paul Williams from the University of Reading in the U.K., who published the research in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. "Even the most seasoned frequent fliers may be alarmed at the prospect of a 149% increase in severe turbulence, which frequently hospitalizes air travelers and flight attendants around the world."

Climate change is expected to lead to stronger vertical wind shears in the jet stream, at the cruising altitude for most jet aircraft. Wind shears can become unstable and cause turbulence.

Williams used supercomputer simulations that calculate clear-air turbulence along Transatlantic routes in winter and found all turbulence strength levels will increase in a world with twice as much CO2, especially the kind of severe shaking that could hurl passengers and other objects around an aircraft cabin.

The computer models show the average amount of light turbulence will increase by 59%, light-to-moderate turbulence by 75%, moderate by 94%, moderate-to-severe by 127%, and severe by 149%.

Ironically, or perhaps poetically, aviation has long been recognized as a major contributor of greenhouse gases to to the atmosphere.

Williams he also plans to investigate how turbulent future flights could be along other routes and during other seasons.