More turbulence in the future?

flights.co.uk
Farah Hesdin
Friday 3 May 2013

If you experience some general aerophobia, or more specifically some fear over turbulence, it seems that the future won't make this any easier on you...

Dr. Paul Williams of Reading University, along with Dr. Manoj Joshi of the University of East Anglia, conducted a study suggesting that climate change will directly affect the level of turbulence airplanes experience when flying across the North Atlantic - and this could spread out to include additional zones.

The research suggests that if climate change continues at the current rate and we end up having an atmosphere with twice as much Carbone dioxide compared to a pre-industrial climate, 'the probability of moderate or greater turbulence increases by 10.8%', and this could be happening as early as in the 2050s. 

'Moderate or greater turbulence' has a specific definition in aviation. According to Dr. Williams, the term refers to turbulence 'that is strong enough to bounce the aircraft around with an acceleration of five meters per second squared, which is half of a g-force. For that, the seatbelt sign would certainly be on; it would be difficult to walk; drinks would get knocked over; you'd feel strain against your seatbelt.'

So, if climate change is not tackled properly and in time, planes will face stronger and more frequent turbulence, and flights will get bumpier and bumpier. The body of research was published in Nature Climate Change and is said to be the very first study to evaluate the future of aviation turbulence.

While more turbulence means less safety and less comfort onboard, it also means more costs. Dr. Paul Williams explains that with bumpier airspace, 'it's certainly plausible that if flights get diverted more to fly around turbulence rather than through it then the amount of fuel that needs to be burnt will increase,' he says. 'Fuel costs money, which airlines have to pay, and ultimately it could of course be passengers buying their tickets who see the prices go up.'

The researcher adds that the costs associated with possible 'injuries, plane damage, and post-incident enquiries' that may occur as a result of increased turbulence are estimated to be around 100 million pounds a year.

Thus, among many other problems, it seems that climate change will also lead to increasingly instable flights if nothing is done to stop the current trend.