Get ready for bumpier flights from London to New York: Climate change set to increase chances of hitting strong air turbulence

- Climate change study by scientists at East Anglia and Reading universities
- They analysed simulations of atmospheric jet stream over North Atlantic
- Chances of hitting significant turbulence will rise by 40 to 170% by 2050
- Average strength of turbulence will also increase, by between 10 and 40%

Mail Online
By Mark Duell
PUBLISHED: 00:03, 9 April 2013 | UPDATED: 09:36, 9 April 2013

Climate change could result in flights from London to New York getting much bumpier in the future.

Scientists from East Anglia and Reading universities have analysed supercomputer simulations of the atmospheric jet stream over the North Atlantic and claim climate change will increase air turbulence.

They found the chances of hitting significant turbulence will rise by 40 to 170 per cent by 2050, with the likeliest outcome being a doubling of the airspace containing significant turbulence at any time.

Dr Paul Williams from the University of Reading and the University of East Anglia's Dr Manoj Joshi said the average strength of turbulence will also increase, by between 10 and 40 per cent.

Dr Williams said: 'Most air passengers will have experienced the uncomfortable feeling of mid-flight air turbulence. Our research suggests that we'll be seeing the "fasten seatbelts" sign turned on more often in the decades ahead.

'Air turbulence does more than just interrupt the service of in-flight drinks. It injures hundreds of passengers and aircrew every year - sometimes fatally. It also causes delays and damages planes.

'The total cost to society is about $150million (£98million) each year. Any increase in turbulence would make flying more uncomfortable and increase the risk to passengers and crew.

'Rerouting flights to avoid stronger patches of turbulence could increase fuel consumption and emissions of atmospheric pollutants, make delays at airports more common, and ultimately push up ticket prices.'

He added: 'Aviation is partly responsible for changing the climate in the first place. It is ironic that the climate looks set to exact its revenge by creating a more turbulent atmosphere for flying.'

Dr Joshi said: 'Our research focused on clear-air turbulence in winter. This is especially problematic to airliners, because clear-air turbulence is invisible to pilots and satellites, and winter is when it peaks.'

The study, called 'Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change', is published today in the journal Nature Climate Change.