Solar wind forecast

Below is the 27.25-day persistence forecast for the solar wind (red), using ACE real-time data (black). Uncertainties, shown in blue, are computed from the skill of persistence forecasts from the previous 27.25-day interval.

This simple approach generally works well at solar minimum, when the solar wind stream structure repeats from solar rotation to solar rotation. At solar maximum (ie., now), the dynamic nature of the corona means a persistence forecast is less reliable.

Solar wind forecast

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