I'm a Professor of Climate Science in Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading and a Senior Scientist in the National Centre for Atmospheric Science. My research focuses on how extremes such as storms, floods and droughts might respond to climate change. I'm the Lead Principal Investigator for the NERC IMPETUS and the EU WINDSURFER projects. I'm also a Principal Investigator for the H2020 IMPREX and H2020 APPLICATE projects. I currently lead a team of researchers investigating the impact of climate change and Arctic sea ice loss on extratropical storms and European weather.
Snapshot of the HiGEM model, showing clouds (greyscale), surface temperatures (colours) and sea ice (pink). I'm also interested in increasing the resolution of global climate models and was a developer of the high-resolution HiGEM climate model. I'm currently leading a project to produce initialised decadal climate forecasts using HiGEM. External links include being a member of the Willis Research Network, a partnership between academia and insurance industry, the Lead Scientist at the University of Reading for the XWS Extreme European Windstorms Catalogue and the Lead Academic for a Knowledge Transfer Partnership with BP on wind and wave risk to offshore oil and gas platforms.
- Shaffrey, L.C. And Dixon R., 2017: Chapter 3b: Extratropical Cyclones in Natural Catastrophe risk management and modelling: A practitioners guide, London, Wiley.
- Shaffrey, L.C., D. Hodson, J. Robson, D.P. Stevens, E. Hawkins, I. Polo, I. Stevens, R.T. Sutton, G. Lister, A. Iwi, D. Smith and A. Stephens, 2017: Decadal Predictions with the HiGEM High Resolution Global Coupled Climate Model: Description and Basic Evaluation. Climate Dynamics, 48, 297-311.
- Priestley, M. D. K.; Pinto, J. G.; Dacre, H. F., and Shaffrey, L. C., 2017: Rossby wave breaking, the upper level jet, and serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in western Europe, Geophys. Res. Letters, 44, 514-521
- Schiemann, R., M.-E. Demory, L. C. Shaffrey, J. Strachan, P. L. Vidale, M. S. Mizielinski, M. J. Roberts, M. Matsueda, M. F. Wehner, T. Jung, 2017: The resolution sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere blocking in four 25-km atmospheric global circulation models. Journal of Climate, 30, 337-58.
- Dong, B., Shaffrey, L.C., and Sutton, R. T., 2017: Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Climate Dynamics, 48, 1537-1554.
- Hawcroft, M., H. Dacre, R. Forbes, K. Hodges, L. Shaffrey and T. Stein, 2017: Using satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the representation of latent heating in extratropical cyclones in a climate model. Climate Dynamics, 48, 2255-2278.
- Bloomfield, H., Brayshaw, D., Shaffrey, L., Coker, P. and Thornton, H. 2016: Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability. Env. Research Letters, 11, 124025.
- Dong, B., R. Sutton, L. Shaffrey and L. Wilcox, 2016: The 2015 European Heatwave [in "Explaining Extremes of 2015 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 97, S57-S62, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0140.1
- Tous, M., G. Zappa, R. Romero, L. Shaffrey and P.L. Vidale, 2016: Projected changes in Medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model, Climate Dynamics, 47, 1913-1924.
- Hawcroft, M., L. Shaffrey, K. Hodges and H. Dacre, 2016: Can climate models represent the precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones? Climate Dynamics, 47, 679-695.
- Kennedy, D., T. Parker, T. Woollings, B. Harvey, and L. Shaffrey, 2016: The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7250-7258, doi:10.1002/2016GL069725
- Pinto, J. G., Ulbrich, S., Economou, T., Stephenson, D. B., Karremann, M. K., Shaffrey, L. C., 2016: Robustness of serial clustering of extra-tropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method. Tellus A, 68, 32204 doi:10.3402/tellusa.v68.32204
- Petrie, R., L. C. Shaffrey and R. T. Sutton, 2015: Atmospheric impact of Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation, J. Climate, 28, 9606-9622.
- Economou, T., D. B. Stephenson, J. G. Pinto, L. C. Shaffrey and G. Zappa, 2015: Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations, Quart J. Royal. Met. Soc., 141, 3076-3087.
- Harvey, B. J., L. C. Shaffrey, T. J. Woollings, 2015: Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks, Clim. Dyn., 45, 2847-2860.
- Kuhlbrodt, T., Gregory, J. and Shaffrey, L., 2015: A process-based analysis of ocean heat uptake in an AOGCM with an eddy-permitting ocean component. Clim. Dyn., 45, 3205-3226.
- Zappa, G., Hawcroft, M., Shaffrey, L.C., Brayshaw, D. And Black, E., 2015: Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics, 45, 1727-1738.
- Petrie, R. E., Shaffrey, L. C. and Sutton, R. T., 2015: Atmospheric response in summer linked to recent Arctic sea ice loss. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 141, 2070-2076.
- Pearson, K. J., Shaffrey, L. C., Methven, J. and Hodges, K. I., 2015: Can a climate model reproduce extreme regional precipitation events over England and Wales? Quart. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1466-1472.
- Rhodes, R. I., L. C. Shaffrey and S. L. Gray, 2015: Can reanalyses represent extreme precipitation over England and Wales? Quart. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc., 141, 1114-1120
- Dong, B., R. Sutton and L. Shaffrey, 2014: The 2013 hot, dry summer in Western Europe [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 95, S15
- Roberts, J. F., Champion, A. J., Dawkins, L. C., Hodges, K. I., Shaffrey, L. C., Stephenson, D. B., Stringer, M. A., Thornton, H. E., and Youngman, B. D. 2014: The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2487-2501, doi:10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014.
- Zappa, G. Len Shaffrey, and Kevin Hodges, 2014: Can Polar Lows be Objectively Identified and Tracked in the ECMWF Operational Analysis and the ERA-Interim Reanalysis? Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 2596
- Schiemann, R., M-E. Demory, M. S. Mizielinski, M. J. Roberts, L. C. Shaffrey, J. Strachan, and P. L. Vidale, 2014: The sensitivity of the tropical circulation and Maritime Continent precipitation to climate model resolution, Climate Dynamics, 42, 2455-2468.
- Harvey, B. J., L. C. Shaffrey and T. J. Woollings, 2014: Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models. Climate Dynamics, 43, 1171-1182.
- Zappa, G., G. Masato, L. Shaffrey, T. Woollings, and K. Hodges, 2014: Linking Northern Hemisphere blocking and storm track biases in the CMIP5 climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 135
- Ho, Chun Kit, Hawkins, Ed, Shaffrey, Len, Brocker, Jochen, Hermanson, Leon, Murphy, J. M., Smith, Doug M.: 2013: Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: The role of ensemble dispersion. Geophys. Res. Lett, 40, 5770-5775, doi:10.1002/2013GL057630 (In press)
- Zappa. G., Shaffrey, L.C., and Hodges K.I. 2013a: North Atlantic Cyclones and Model Biases in the CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 26, 5379-5396.
- Zappa. G., Shaffrey, L.C., Hodges K.I., Sansom, P., and Stephenson, D., 2013b: The response of North Atlantic cyclones to climate change in CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 26, 5846-5862.
- Sansom P. G., Stephenson D. B., Ferro C. A. T., Zappa G. and Shaffrey L., 2013: A simple framework for weighting climate change projections in multi-model ensembles. J. Climate, 26, 4017-4037.
- Ho, C.K., Ed Hawkins, Len Shaffrey and Fiona M. Underwood, 2013: Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41, 917-935.
- Lloyd-Hughes, B., Shaffrey, L. C., Vidale, P. L. and Arnell, N. W., 2013: An evaluation of the spatiotemporal structure of large-scale European drought within the HiGEM climate model. Int. J. Climatol., 33, 2024-2035. doi: 10.1002/joc.3570
- Marathayil, D., A.G. Turner, L.C. Shaffrey and Richard C. Levine, 2013: Systematic winter SST biases in the northern Arabian Sea in HiGEM and the CMIP3 models, Environmental Research Letters, 8, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014028
- Guo, L., Highwood, E. J., Shaffrey, L. C., and Turner, A. G., 2013: The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian Summer Monsoon, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1521-1534, doi:10.5194/acp-13-1521-2013
- Keeley, S. P. E., Sutton, R. T. and Shaffrey, L. C., 2012: The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 138, 1774-1783. doi: 10.1002/qj.1912
- Harvey, B. J., L. C. Shaffrey, T. J. Woollings, G. Zappa, and K. I. Hodges, 2012: How large are projected 21st century storm track changes?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18707, doi:10.1029/2012GL052873.
- Woollings, T., B. Harvey, M. Zahn, and L. Shaffrey, 2012: On the role of the ocean in projected atmospheric stability changes in the Atlantic polar low region, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L24802, doi:10.1029/2012GL054016.
- Hawcroft, M. K., L. C. Shaffrey, K. I. Hodges, and H. F. Dacre, 2012: How much Northern Hemisphere precipitation is associated with extratropical cyclones?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L24809, doi:10.1029/2012GL053866.
- Toniazzo, T., Abel, S. J., Wood, R., Mechoso, C. R., Allen, G., and Shaffrey, L. C., 2011: Large-scale and synoptic meteorology in the south-east Pacific during VOCALS-REx in 2008, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4977-5009.
- Tefera-Diro, G., Toniazzo, T. and Shaffrey L.C., 2011: Chapter3: Ethiopian Rainfall in Climate Models in African climate and climate change: physical, social and political perspectives. New York, Springer.
- Catto, J. Shaffrey, L.C. And Hodges K.I., 2011: Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones in a Warming Climate in the HiGEM High Resolution Climate Model, J. Climate, 24, 5336-5352.
- Balan, B., Gregory, J. M., Tailleux, R., Bigg, G., Blaker, A., Cameron, D., Edwards, N., Megann, A. P., Shaffrey, L. C., and Sinha, B., 2011: High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Ocean Sci., 7, 471-486.
- Toniazzo, T. Mechoso C.R., Shaffrey L.C. and Slingo J.M., 2010: Ocean surface heat budget and ocean eddy transport in the South-East Pacific in a high-resolution coupled model, Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0703-8.
- Catto, J, Shaffrey, L.C. and Hodges K.I., 2010: Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones? J. Climate, 23, 1621-1635, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3318.1
- Keeley, S.P.E., Sutton, R.T. and Shaffrey, L.C., 2009. Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L22706, doi:10.1029/2009GL040367.
- Roberts, M.J. A. Clayton, M.-E. Demory, J. Donners, P. L. Vidale, W. Norton, L. Shaffrey, D. P. Stevens, I. Stevens, R. A. Wood and J. Slingo, 2009, Impact of resolution on the tropical Pacific circulation in a matrix of coupled models. J. Climate, 22, 2541-2556.
- Challinor, A., T. Osborne, A. Morse, L. Shaffrey, T. Wheeler, H. Weller and P.L. Vidale, 2009, Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy. B. Amer. Met. Soc., 90, 836-848.
- Slingo, J., K. Bates, N. Nikiforakis, M. Piggott, M. Roberts, L. Shaffrey, I. Stevens, P. Vidale, H. Weller, 2009, Developing the next generation climate system models: Challenges and achievements. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 367, 815-831;
- Shaffrey, L.C. and co-authors, 2009, UK-HiGEM: The new UK High Resolution Global Environment Model. Model description and Basic Evaluation. J. Climate, 22, 1861-1896.
- Shaffrey, L.C. and R.T. Sutton, 2006, Bjerknes Compensation and the Decadal Variability of Energy Transports in a Coupled Climate Model. J. Climate, 19, 1167-1181.
- Shaffrey, L.C. and R.T. Sutton, 2004, The Interannual Variability of Energy Transports Over and in the Atlantic Ocean in a Coupled Climate Model. J. Climate, 17, 1433-1448.
- Shaffrey, L.C., B. J. Hoskins and R. Lu, 2002, The Relationship between the North American Monsoon and the North Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone in HadAM3, 2002, Q. J. Royal Met. Soc., 128, 2607-2622.
My calendar and a link to the NUGAM movie
Some of the work and the projects I've been involved in the past can be found here.
Len Shaffrey, NCAS, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading. L.C.Shaffrey@reading.ac.uk [an error occurred while processing this directive]