Monday 04/01/2016

Indices time series

To check if there is any link between the global mean surface temperature (T_s) and various indices (MEI, AO, PDO, AMO).

Plots

Fig. 1: Time series of HadCRUT anomaly (base 1961-1990), MEI index, AO, PDO and AMO.

All lines are 24 month running mean.

This plot is messy, please see following plots for details.

Fig. 2: As Fig. 1a, but in separate panels for clarity.

Fig. 3: As Fig. 1b, but in separate panels for clarity.

Fig. 4: (a) Comparison of AMO and T_s; (b) detrended.

The AMO is shifted up (solid) for easy comparison.

Have consistent variability in general, but there is discrepancy at the end of the data.

Gradient (m) is similar, though T_s gradient is bigger.

This AMO is from http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/AMO/. It looks like the ENSO and greenhouse forcing is not removed.

But it means the north Atlantic SST is the important proxy of the global mean T_s.