Saturday 8th March
Changes
Afoot
Weather Outlook: Strong winds
around Cape Tobin
and over moorings in Denmark Strait
Flight plan for tomorrow: Transit
flight to Iceland, over tropopause fold, and over
Cape Tobin
Blog
After a visit to a local bar last night it was impressive to
see everyone up for breakfast this morning.
Work started immediately on analyzing the latest forecasts to decide the
plans for the coming days. There are
strong winds around Cape Tobin (the ‘corner’ halfway up the east Greenland coast) tomorrow and Monday that are of interest
to Haraldur (Olafsson). We also said farewell to Trude
this morning, heading back to Bergen
to be replaced by Astrid tomorrow.
After our gorgeous lunch of lasagne
and garlic bread we decided to go for a walk.
Jon Egill, Ivan, Miguel and I walked along the
pier and around Andenes, before heading to the coffee
shop. Jon Egill
was impressed that I managed to order my hot chocolate in Norwegian, although I
don’t think my accent was very good because I had to say “en shokolade takk” twice before the
girl understood me. Ivan also taught me
to say “Jeg forstor ikke” and “Jeg sprakker ikke Norsk”
to aid me in the situations where people speak at me in Norwegian. The translations are: “I don’t understand”,
“I don’t speak Norwegian”. Other people
went sightseeing around the island. Erik
and Frode attempted to get our Indian friend Muralidhar out in the fresh air by taking him for a drive
to a nearby village where they hang fish up to dry the traditional way on a
wooden frame near the sea. Muralidhar had other ideas about this and spent most of the
time sat in the car wrapped up against what he considered to be the biting
cold. We’ve actually been really lucky
with the weather here, and have got used to clear and sunny, albeit cold
days. A change is in the air however -
it’s warming up here. Today it’s 00C,
and for the first time I didn’t have to wear my thermals under my clothes to go
walking outside. The consequence of this
warming is that the snow is starting to melt and everywhere is becoming very
icy. It’s going to be colder again
tomorrow, before a front comes through on Sunday night bringing some snow but
there is warmer air behind it. The air
behind the front is warm and 40C is forecast for Monday. Heatwave!
After 2 conference calls to Haraldur
in Iceland
and consultation with DLR the plans have been set for the next few days. Tomorrow will see the White Beauty leave us
for Keflavik via a tropopause
fold north of Iceland and
the Cape Tobin jet. Monday will probably be a flight over the
mooring site and barrier jet, using LIDAR and dropsondes. Tuesday should see the return of the Falcon
to Andenes via the Cape Tobin
jet, which will have less cloud cover over the top and so can be scanned with
the wind LIDAR. After the meeting the
dwindling female population had a welcome boost by the arrival of two masters students from Bergen,
Berit and Beathe. They were accompanied by Matthias Zahn, a PhD student from Germany. The most welcome change was at dinner where
there were no boiled potatoes to be found, only pizza, pizza and more
pizza. Will the potatoes make a return
tomorrow? The odds are high. The evening was brought to a close by
watching a strange British film about an old man’s obsession with a girl a
quarter of his age. Under interrogation
the perpetrators who rented the film confessed to being misled by the description
of the film as ‘a British comedy’. The
Northern lights made a brief appearance, but the weather was for once against
us as the cloud rolled in. The
University of Fairbanks Alaska’s aurora forecast
indicates a more active aurora for the next few nights, so we are praying for
clear skies to give us good viewing opportunities!
Weather Round-up
The ECMWF 00Z forecast from yesterday (7th)
showed a lee cyclone forming and merging with a larger synoptic scale cyclone
as it deepened. This cyclone reached
954hPa at midnight on Wednesday. The 12Z
ECMWF forecast from yesterday showed a less intense cyclone at 964hPa with the
centre slightly further east. The lee
cyclone is less intense and dies out quickly, and doesn’t merge with the
cyclone before it hits the UK. The 00Z forecast from midnight today (8th)
moves the cyclone much faster over the UK,
and has the centre between Scotland
and southern Norway
at 962hPa at midnight on Wednesday. In
this forecast the lee cyclone is stronger, but does not merge with the larger
cyclone, although it does start moving towards the UK before dying out on
Wednesday. The conclusion from yesterday
that flow distortion by Greenland would influence the development of the
cyclone that hits the UK
on Wednesday seems to be valid, as the cyclone is weaker in the recent
forecasts where the lee cyclone does not merge with it. This now does not look like a good case for
targeting.
A low pressure system which has tracked up around the east
side of Iceland, to be north
of Iceland at 12Z on Sunday
is causing a corner jet around Cape
Tobin. As this low pressure system continues its
cyclonic path around Iceland towards Cape Farewell on Sunday and Monday there
are barrier winds in the Denmark Strait, over the mooring site at 65N 33W.
SAP Evaluation
The SV SAPs highlight regions to
the south (12hrs opt) and southwest (24, 36hrs opt) of the verification region,
one the south side of the low pressure system over Iceland. There is strong upper-level flow associated
with the jet stream into the verification region.
The ETKF SAPs show more variation
with optimization time. For 12hrs
optimization time the sensitive region is on the eastern side of the low
pressure system, over Norway
and up to the southern edge of Svalbard. For 24hrs optimization there are two
sensitive regions: the eastern side of the low within the verification region
and just south-west of the low where a low (which deepens and hits UK?) has
formed. For 36hrs optimization the
southern edge of the low and the lee low are highlighted as sensitive.