Sunday 2nd March
Time for a brake (sorry)
Weather Outlook: Thereís a change on the horizon from Friday, but until then conditions still good for polar lows.
Flight plan for tomorrow: Into a polar low to our NE, which may be a sensitive region, but the ETKF SAPs didnít come through today.
No flight today, for technical reasons. †The brake on the Falcon needed replacing, and this was done with great speed by aircraft technician Alex this morning. †A short flight was needed to test the brakes this afternoon, and a second short flight carried cameraman Frode and dropsonde operator Christian so that they could get some shots from the air for the documentary.
Today we said goodbye to Astrid, leaving us for a week to
see her young daughter, and Birgitte who is
journeying on to
The afternoon flight planning discussions were rudely
interrupted by the arrival of the 12Z HIRLAM forecast, which showed that the
polar low that we thought was going to move slowly away from us,
was actually going to develop and come straight towards us. †A secondary low is forecast to form off it and
Tomorrow we fly to map the structure of these polar lows, and see if putting observations in the forecast ultimately improves it. †If we can get them onto the GTS that isÖ
Polar lows seem to be popping up everywhere. †Another has appeared on the satellite image, to the north of AndÝya, that was not forecasted.† See the above for a description.† The temperature difference between the sea surface and 500mb height is 51degC in the region where the low is forming.
Thereís no ETKF SAPs today, for reasons unknown. †Given their recent form, and that the situation has changed little since yesterday itís a pretty safe bet that the sensitive region is to our north!
The SV SAPs have the sensitive
region inside the verification region for 12 and 24hrs optimization times,
where there is weak westerly upper-level flow. †For 36hrs optimization there is a second
sensitive region in the lee of