Publications
CLIMATE LAB BOOK BLOG - Experimenting in open source climate science
SUBMITTED / REVISED (please e-mail me for a copy)
Ho, Hawkins, Shaffrey & Underwood, 'Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions', submitted to Climate Dynamics
Hodson et al., 'Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections', submitted to Climate Dynamics
Meehl et al., 'Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches', submitted to BAMS
IN PRESS
Hawkins, Osborne, Ho & Challinor, 'Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: an idealised case study over Europe', Ag. For. Met., 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.007 (or PDF)
2012
Hawkins & Sutton, 2012, 'Time of emergence of climate signals', Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L01702, doi: 10.1029/2011GL050087 (or PDF)
2011
Hawkins et al., 2011, 'Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of SSTs with a perfect model approach', Climate Dynamics, 37, 2495, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1023-3 (or PDF)
Ortega, Hawkins & Sutton, 2011, 'Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled GCM', Climate Dynamics, 37, 1771, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1025-1 (or PDF)
Joshi, Hawkins, Sutton, Lowe & Frame, 2011, 'Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels', Nature Climate Change, 1, 407, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1261, Editorial
Yip, Ferro, Stephenson & Hawkins, 2011, 'A simple, coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in climate predictions', Journal of Climate, 24, 4634, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4085.1 (or PDF)
Hawkins & Sutton, 2011, 'The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change', Climate Dynamics, 37, 407, doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6 (or PDF). Interactive results website
Hawkins, 2011, 'Our evolving climate: communicating the effects of climate variability', Weather, 66, 175, doi: 10.1002/wea.761, (or PDF), blog article
Hawkins et al., 2011, 'Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a GCM and links to ocean freshwater transport', Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L10605, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047208, Editor's Highlight, Correction (or PDF)
Hawkins & Sutton, 2011, 'Estimating climatically relevant singular vectors for decadal predictions of the Atlantic Ocean', Journal of Climate, 24, 109, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3579.1 (or PDF)
2010
Charlton-Perez, Hawkins et al., 2010, 'The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century', Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, 9473, doi: 10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010
Poulter et al., 2010, 'Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters', Global Change Biology, 16, 2476, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02157.x
2009
Meehl et al., 2009, 'Decadal prediction: can it be skillful?', BAMS, 90, 1467, doi: 10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1 (open access)
Hawkins & Sutton, 2009, 'The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions', BAMS, 90, 1095, doi: 10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1 (open access), Interactive results website and press release
Hawkins & Sutton, 2009, 'Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling', Journal of Climate, 22, 3960, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1 (or PDF).
2008
Hawkins & Sutton, 2008, 'Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation', GRL, 35, L11603, doi: 10.1029/2008GL034059 (or PDF), associated New Scientist article.
2007
Hawkins & Sutton, 2007,
'Variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation described by 3d
EOFs', Climate Dynamics, 29, 745, doi: 10.1007/s00382-007-0263-8,
Supplementary
animated figure, publishers
erratum, or PDF
NOTE: publishers version has x-axis with a
(incorrect) reversed scale in Figs. 5,6.
NON-PEER REVIEWED
Hawkins, 2012, 'Our evolving climate', Significance magazine, or PDF
Jewson & Hawkins, 2010, 'Uncertain climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles: when to use them and when to ignore them', arXiv/1006.5327
Jewson & Hawkins, 2009, 'Improving uncertain climate forecasts using a new minimum mean square error estimator for the mean of the normal distribution', arxiv/0912.4395
Jewson & Hawkins, 2009, 'Improving the expected accuracy of forecasts of future climate using a simple bias-variance tradeoff', arxiv/0911.1904
Jewson & Hawkins, 2009, 'CMIP3 ensemble spread, model similarity, and climate prediction uncertainty', arxiv/0909.1890
