Latest temperature (min, max, mean) forecast for Sofia

Recent observations
YYYYMMDD     OBS   Min   Max  Mean
20120510     OBS   8.0  21.3  14.6
20120511     OBS  11.6  24.6  18.1
20120512     OBS  13.4  25.3  19.3
20120513     OBS  14.0  18.1  16.0
20120514     OBS   8.1  13.7  10.9
20120515     OBS  10.7  14.0  12.4
20120516     OBS   8.4  15.1  11.8
20120517     OBS   9.4  15.4  12.4
20120518     OBS   6.4  13.1   9.8
20120519     OBS   8.5  18.6  13.6
20120520     OBS  11.5  22.8  17.1
Latest forecasts
                                  Confidence EnsembleSpread
YYYYMMDD     DAY   Min   Max  Mean Min Max   Min   Max
20120521     000   9.   25.   17.  -   Hi    0.2   0.4
20120522     001  12.   21.   16.  -   Hi    0.4   0.7
20120523     002   7.   22.   14.  -   -     0.3   0.7
20120524     003   9.   19.   14.  -   -     0.6   0.9
20120525     004  13.   19.   16.  -   -     1.6   1.4
20120526     005   9.   23.   16.  -   -     2.8   1.7
20120527     006  10.   22.   16.  -   -     1.9   1.3
20120528     007  10.   24.   17.  -   -     2.2   1.1
20120529     008  11.   24.   18.  -   Lo    1.1   1.5
20120530     009  12.   24.   18.  -   Lo    1.4   1.8
20120531     010  12.   24.   18.  -   Lo    1.0   1.5
20120601     011  12.   26.   19.  -   Lo    0.8   2.2
20120602     012  13.   26.   20.  -   Lo    1.5   2.9
20120603     013  14.   25.   20.  -   Lo    1.4   4.1
20120604     014  13.   26.   20.  -   Lo    2.1   3.4
20120605     015  13.   26.   20.  -   Lo    1.6   1.9

-99.9 denotes missing data

For forecasts:

• 'Hi' - denotes that recent forecast errors for the specified forecast length (column 'DAY') have had a standard deviation over the past 30 days of less than 1.5C,
• '- ' - as 'Hi' but in the range 1.5C to 3C.
• 'Lo' - as 'Hi' but greater than 3C.
• The values in the 'Ensemble Spread' columns indicate the standard deviation of the spread of the forecasts between the ensembles. Thus, a value of 1.0 indicates that approximately 2/3rds of the ensemble members lie in the range -1.0C to +1.0C about the mean of the ensemble forecasts.
• The larger the value of the 'Ensemble Spread' the greater the uncertainty of the forecast as the ensemble members have a larger variation for the forecast for the day shown.