Latest temperature (min, max, mean) forecast for PhoenixAZ

Recent observations
YYYYMMDD     OBS   Min   Max  Mean
20120510     OBS -99.9 -99.9 -99.9
20120511     OBS  17.8  37.2  27.5
20120512     OBS -99.9 -99.9 -99.9
20120513     OBS  21.1  39.4  30.2
20120514     OBS -99.9 -99.9 -99.9
20120515     OBS -99.9 -99.9 -99.9
20120516     OBS -99.9 -99.9 -99.9
20120517     OBS  23.9  40.6  32.2
20120518     OBS  23.9  40.6  32.2
20120519     OBS -99.9 -99.9 -99.9
20120520     OBS -99.9 -99.9 -99.9
Latest forecasts
                                  Confidence EnsembleSpread
YYYYMMDD     DAY   Min   Max  Mean Min Max   Min   Max
20120521     000  28.   42.   35.  -   Hi    0.3   0.1
20120522     001  28.   43.   35.  -   -     0.2   0.2
20120523     002  25.   42.   34.  -   Hi    0.4   0.2
20120524     003  21.   40.   30.  Lo  -     0.1   0.6
20120525     004  19.   37.   28.  -   Hi    1.4   0.7
20120526     005  16.   33.   24.  -   Hi    2.1   2.3
20120527     006  18.   34.   26.  -   -     3.0   2.7
20120528     007  22.   38.   30.  -   Hi    1.2   1.0
20120529     008  26.   41.   34.  -   -     0.9   0.6
20120530     009  27.   43.   35.  -   -     1.6   1.4
20120531     010  26.   43.   34.  -   -     1.6   1.9
20120601     011  24.   42.   33.  -   -     0.7   0.9
20120602     012  25.   42.   33.  -   -     1.9   2.1
20120603     013  25.   41.   33.  -   Lo    3.9   3.8
20120604     014  24.   41.   32.  -   Lo    3.9   4.2
20120605     015  22.   39.   30.  Lo  Lo    3.2   4.2

-99.9 denotes missing data

For forecasts:

• 'Hi' - denotes that recent forecast errors for the specified forecast length (column 'DAY') have had a standard deviation over the past 30 days of less than 1.5C,
• '- ' - as 'Hi' but in the range 1.5C to 3C.
• 'Lo' - as 'Hi' but greater than 3C.
• The values in the 'Ensemble Spread' columns indicate the standard deviation of the spread of the forecasts between the ensembles. Thus, a value of 1.0 indicates that approximately 2/3rds of the ensemble members lie in the range -1.0C to +1.0C about the mean of the ensemble forecasts.
• The larger the value of the 'Ensemble Spread' the greater the uncertainty of the forecast as the ensemble members have a larger variation for the forecast for the day shown.