Professor Nigel Arnell

Professor of Climate Change Science (Walker Institute)

Responsibilities:

Director of Walker Institute

Web Pages:

Group: http://www.walker-institute.ac.uk/

Research interests:

  • The impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources
  • Impacts of climate change across the global domain
  • The use of climate information in adaptation to climate change
  • Climate change and water management
  • Climate policy and the impacts of climate change

Research projects:

  • Global scale impacts of climate change (QUEST-GSI)
  • Avoiding dangerous climate change (AVOID)
  • Climate change and risk (Deloittes)

Postdoctoral & graduate student supervision

  • Dr Ben Lloyd-Hughes works on the Deloittes risk project and has a special interest in droughts.
  • Simon Rogerson is a third year PhD student working on the development of a global glacier model.
  • Kerian Ferreira is a third year PhD student working on potential changes to the Hadley Circulation and their impacts.

Other interests

  • Lead Author in Working Group 2 for all IPCC assessments since the second
  • Member of the Lead Expert Group for the Foresight project on Global Environmental Change and Migration

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Recent Publications:

Jump to: 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006
Number of items: 49.

2014

Arnell, N. W., Charlton, M. B. and Lowe, J. A. (2014) The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK. Journal of Hydrology, 510. pp. 424-435. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.046

Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Arnell, N. W., Carter, T. R., Edmonds, J., Kriegler, E., Mathur, R., O’Neill, B. C., Riahi, K., Winkler, H., Van Vuuren, D. P. and Zwickel, T. (2014) A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions. Climatic Change, 122 (3). pp. 363-372. ISSN 1573-1480 doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0912-3

Arnell, N. W., Brown, S., Gosling, S. N., Hinkel, J., Huntingford, C., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Lowe, J. A., Osborn, T., Nicholls, R. J. and Zelazowski, P. (2014) Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact. Climatic Change. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7

Arnell, N. W. and Gosling, S. N. (2014) The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5

2013

Kundzewicz, Z. W., Kanae, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Handmer, J., Nicholls, N., Peduzzi, P., Mechler, R., Bouwer, L. M., Arnell, N., Mach, K., Muir-Wood, R., Brakenridge, G. R., Kron, W., Benito, G., Honda, Y., Takahashi, K. and Sherstyukov, B. (2013) Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives. Hydrological Sciences Journal. ISSN 2150-3435 doi: 10.1080/02626667.2013.857411

Arnell, N. and Lloyd-Hughes, B. (2013) The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios. Climatic Change. ISSN 1573-1480 doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0948-4

Warren, R., Lowe, J. A., Arnell, N., Hope, C., Berry, P., Brown, S., Gambhir, A., Gosling, S. N., Nicholls, R. J., O’Hanley, J., Osborn, T. J., Osborne, T., Price, J., Raper, S. C. B., Rose, G. and Vanderwal, J. (2013) The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation. Climatic Change, 120 (1-2). pp. 55-70. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0814-4

Gosling, S. N. and Arnell, N. W. (2013) A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Climatic Change. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0853-x

Lloyd-Hughes, B., Shaffrey, L. C., Vidale, P. L. and Arnell, N. W. (2013) An evaluation of the spatiotemporal structure of large-scale European drought within the HiGEM climate model. International Journal of Climatology, 33 (8). pp. 2024-2035. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: 10.1002/joc.3570

Arnell, N. W., Lowe, J. A., Brown, S., Gosling, S. N., Gottschalk, P., Hinkel, J., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Nicholls, R. J., Osborn, T. J., Osborne, T. M., Rose, G. A., Smith, P. and Warren, R. F. (2013) A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3. pp. 512-519. ISSN 1758-678X doi: 10.1038/nclimate1793

Black, R., Adger, W. N. and Arnell, N. W. (2013) Migration and extreme environmental events: new agendas for global change research. Environmental Science & Policy, 27 (supp. 1). S1-S3. ISSN 1462-9011 doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2012.09.010

Black, R., Arnell, N. W., Adger, W. N., Thomas, D. and Geddes, A. (2013) Migration, immobility and displacement outcomes following extreme events. Environmental Science & Policy, 27 (supp. 1). S32-S43. ISSN 1462-9011 doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2012.09.001

Arnell, N. W. and Gosling, S. N. (2013) The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale. Journal of Hydrology, 486. pp. 351-364. ISSN 0022-1694 doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.010

2012

van Vuuren, D. P., Riahi, K., Moss, R., Edmonds, J., Thomson, A., Nakicenovic, N., Kram, T., Berkhout, F., Swart, R., Janetos, A., Rose, S. K. and Arnell, N. (2012) A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities. Global Environmental Change, 22 (1). pp. 21-35. ISSN 0959-3780 doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.08.002

Gottschalk, P., Smith, J. U., Wattenbach, M., Bellarby, J., Stehfest, E., Arnell, N. W., Osborn, T. J., Jones, C. and Smith, P. (2012) How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios. Biogeosciences, 9 (8). pp. 3151-3171. ISSN 1726-4170 doi: 10.5194/bg-9-3151-2012

Geddes, A., Adger, W. N., Arnell, N., Black, R. and Thomas, D. S. G. (2012) Migration, environmental change, and the ‘challenges of governance’. Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, 30 (6). pp. 951-967. ISSN 1472-3425 doi: 10.1068/c3006ed

Ledbetter, R., Prudhomme, C. and Arnell, N. (2012) A method for incorporating climate variability in climate change impact assessments: sensitivity of river flows in the Eden catchment to precipitation scenarios. Climatic Change, 113 (3-4). pp. 803-823. ISSN 1573-1480 doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0386-0

Simelton, E., Fraser, E. D. G., Termansen, M., Benton, T. G., Gosling, S. N., South, A., Arnell, N. W., Challinor, A. J., Dougill, A. J. and Forster, P. M. (2012) The socioeconomics of food crop production and climate change vulnerability: a global scale quantitative analysis of how grain crops are sensitive to drought. Food Security, 4 (2). pp. 163-179. ISSN 1876-4517 doi: 10.1007/s12571-012-0173-4

2011

Black, R., Adger, W. N., Arnell, N., Dercon, S., Geddes, A. and Thomas, D. S.G. (2011) Migration and global environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 21S (1). S1-S2. ISSN 0959-3780 doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.005

Black, R., Adger, W. N., Arnell, N., Dercon, S., Geddes, A. and Thomas, D. S.G. (2011) The effect of environmental change on human migration. Global Environmental Change, 21S (1). S3-S11. ISSN 0959-3780 doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.001

Haddeland, I., Clark, D. B., Franssen, W., Ludwig, F., Voß, F., Arnell, N. W., Bertrand, N., Best, M., Folwell, S., Kabat, P., Koirala, S., Oki, T., Polcher, J., Stacke, T., Viterbo, P., Weedon, G. P. , Yehm, P., Gerten, D., Gomes, S., Gosling, S. N. , Hagemann, S., Hanasaki, N., Harding, R. and Heinke, J. (2011) Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: setup and first results. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12 (5). pp. 869-884. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: 10.1175/2011JHM1324.1

Arnell, N. (2011) Policy: the perils of doing nothing. Nature Climate Change, 1. pp. 193-195. ISSN 1758-6787 doi: 10.1038/nclimate1157

Arnell, N. W., van Vuuren, D. P. and Isaac, M. (2011) The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources. Global Environmental Change, 21 (2). pp. 592-603. ISSN 0959-3780 doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.01.015

van Vuuren, D. P., Isaac, M., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Arnell, N., Barker, T., Criqui, P., Berkhout, F., Hilderink, H., Hinkel, J., Hof, A., Kitous, A., Kram, T., Mechler, R. and Scrieciu, S. (2011) The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Global Environmental Change, 21 (2). pp. 575-591. ISSN 0959-3780 doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.11.003

Gosling, S. N. and Arnell, N. W. (2011) Simulating current global river runoff with a global hydrological model: model revisions, validation, and sensitivity analysis. Hydrological Processes, 25 (7). pp. 1129-1145. ISSN 0885-6087 doi: 10.1002/hyp.7727

Todd, M., Taylor, R., Osborn, T., Kingston, D., Arnell, N. and Gosling, S. (2011) Uncertainty in climate change impacts on basin-scale freshwater resources – preface to the special issue: the QUEST-GSI methodology and synthesis of results. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15 (3). pp. 1035-1046. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: 10.5194/hess-15-1035-2011

Arnell, N. (2011) Uncertainty in the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response in UK catchments. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15 (3). pp. 897-912. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: 10.5194/hess-15-897-2011

Charlton, M. B. and Arnell, N. W. (2011) Adapting to climate change impacts on water resources in England - an assessment of draft Water Resources Management Plans. Global Environmental Change, 21 (1). pp. 238-248. ISSN 0959-3780 doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.012

Arnell, N. (2011) Incorporating climate change into water resources planning in England and Wales. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47 (3). pp. 541-549. ISSN 1752-1688 doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00548.x

Gosling, S., Taylor, R. G., Arnell, N. and Todd, M. C. (2011) A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15 (1). pp. 279-294. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: 10.5194/hess-15-279-2011

2010

Gosling, S. N., Bretherton, D. , Haines, K. and Arnell, N. W. (2010) Global hydrology modelling and uncertainty: running multiple ensembles with a campus grid. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 368. pp. 4005-4021. ISSN 1364-503X doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0164

Arnell, N. W. (2010) Adapting to climate change: an evolving research programme. Climatic Change, 100 (1). pp. 107-111. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9839-0

Tompkins, E.L., Adger, W.N., Boyd, E., Nicholson-Cole, S., Weatherhead, K. and Arnell, N. (2010) Observed adaptation to climate change: UK evidence of transition to a well-adapting society. Global Environmental Change, 20 (4). pp. 627-635. ISSN 0959-3780 doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.05.001

van Vuuren, D. P., Isaac, M., Kundzewicz, Z., Arnell, N. , Barker, T., Criqui, P., Bauer, N., Berkhout, F., Hilderink, H., Hinkel, J., Hof, A., Kitous, A., Kram, T., Mechler, R. and Scrieciu, S. (2010) Scenarios as the basis for assessment of mitigation and adaptation. In: Hulme, M. and Neufeldt, H. (eds.) Making Climate Change Work For Us. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 54-86. ISBN 9780521119412

Charlton, M., Bailey, A. and Arnell, N., (2010) Water for agriculture: implications for future policy and practice. Report. Royal Agricultural Society of England pp94.

2009

Arnell, N. W. and Charlton, M. B. (2009) Adapting to the effects of climate change on water supply reliability. In: Adger, W.N., Lorenzoni, I. and O'Brien, K. L. (eds.) Adapting to climate change: thresholds, values, governance. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 42-53. ISBN 9780521764858

Parry, M. L., Arnell, N. W., Berry, P., Dodman, D., Fankhauser, S., Hope, C., Kovats, S., Nicholls, R., Satterthwaite, D., Tiffin, R. and Wheeler, T. R. (2009) Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change: a review of the UNFCCC and other recent estimates. International Institute for Environment and Development and Grantham Institute for Climate Change, London, pp111. ISBN 9781843697459

Kingston, D., Todd, M., Taylor, R., Thompson, J. and Arnell, N. W. (2009) Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 36. L20403. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: DOI:10.1029/2009GL040267

2008

Warren, R., de la Nava Santos, S., Arnell, N. W., Bane, M., Barker, T., Barton, C., Ford, R., Füssel, H.-M., Hankin, R. K.S., Klein, R., Linstead, C., Kohler, J., Mitchell, T.D., Osborn, T.J., Pan, H., Raper, S.C.B., Riley, G., Schellnhüber, H.J., Winne , S. and Anderson, D. (2008) Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS), a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change. Environmental Modelling and Software, 23 (5). pp. 592-610. ISSN 1364-8152 doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.09.002

Kundzewicz, Z., Mata, L., Arnell, N. W., Doll, P., Jimenez, B., Miller, K., Oki, T., Sen, Z. and Shiklomanov, I. (2008) The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (1). pp. 3-10. ISSN 0262-6667

Warren, R., Arnell, N. W. and Nicholls, R. (2008) Regional impacts of climate change. In: Cuff, D. J. and Goudie, A. S. (eds.) The Oxford Companion to Global Change. Oxford University Press, USA, pp. 352-358. ISBN 9780195324884

Kundzewicz, Z.W., Mata, L.J., Arnell, N. W., Doll, P., Jimenez, B., Miller, K., Oki, T., Sen, Z. and Shiklomanov, I. (2008) The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53. pp. 3-10.

2007

Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mata, L. J., Arnell, N. W., Doll, P., Kabat, P., Jimenez, B., Miller, K., Oki, T., Zekai, S. and Shiklomanov, I. (2007) Freshwater resources and their management. In: Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. and Hanson, C. E. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, pp. 173-210. ISBN 9780521880091

Yohe, G. W., Lasco, R. D., Ahmad, Q. K., Arnell, N. W., Cohen, S. J., Hope, C., Janetos, A. C. and Perez, R. T. (2007) Perspectives on climate change and sustainability. In: Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. and Hanson, C. E. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, pp. 811-841. ISBN 9780521880091

Arnell, N. W. and Chatterton, J. B. (2007) Reducing flood losses. In: Thorne, C. R., Evans, E. P. and Penning-Rowsell, E. C. (eds.) Future Flood and Coastal Erosion Risks in the UK. Thomas Telford, pp. 360-373. ISBN 9780727734495

Arnell, N. W. (2007) Summary for Policymakers. In: Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. and Hanson, C. E. (eds.) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, pp. 7-22. ISBN 9780521880091

2006

Scholze, M., Knorr, W., Arnell, N. W. and Prentice, I.C. (2006) A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103 (35). pp. 13116-13120. ISSN 0027-8424 doi: 10.1073/pnas.0601816103

Arnell, N. W. and Delaney, E. K. (2006) Adapting to climate change: public water supply in England and Wales. Climatic Change, 78 (2-4). pp. 227-255. ISSN 0165-0009 doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9067-9

Sear, D.A. and Arnell, N. W. (2006) The application of palaeohydrology in river management. Catena, 66 (1-2). pp. 169-183. ISSN 0341-8162 doi: 10.1016/j.catena.2005.11.009

This list was generated on Thu Aug 28 23:34:53 2014 BST.

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n.w.arnell@reading.ac.uk

Office: 1L33 (Agriculture)

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