Matthew Priestley

PhD Year 3

Research Interests:

  • Extra-tropical cyclones
  • Severe weather
  • Large scale dynamics

Research Projects:

    Storm Clustering over Europe.

      Supervisors: Dr Joaquim Pinto , Dr Len Shaffrey and Dr Helen Dacre

          Intense extra-tropical storms are a major weather hazard affecting Europe. Under particular large-scale atmospheric conditions, several storms may affect Europe within a short time period. The occurrence of such “cyclone families” (clustering) leads to large socio-economic impacts and cumulative losses. Recent studies showed that clustering of extra-tropical storms is a robust feature in Reanalysis. My project aims to analyse in detail the large-scale atmospheric dynamics associated with the occurrence of storm clusters affecting Western Europe. The various factors leading to the occurrence of storm clusters include an extended and intensified upper-level jet stream, Rossby Wave Breaking, steering from large-scale variability modes (like the North Atlantic Oscillation) and secondary cyclogenesis over the Eastern North Atlantic. There is recent evidence that storm clustering may decrease over North Atlantic storm track area and Western Europe under future climate conditions. In this project, the representation clustering in global circulation models (GCMs) and possible changes under future climate conditions will be assessed from a multi-model perspective.

          The related changing risk of the occurrence of cumulative events and implications for the European Reinsurance market will be quantified through a partnership with Aon Benfield. Aon are particularly interested in the loss associated with storms with a large return period and whether or not these events would be part of a clustering event.

        Research Groups:

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