Dr Jochen Broecker


in Statistics and Meteorology

Web Pages:

Personal web page: More on research and other interests

Maths staff web page: My role in the Dept of Maths and Stats

Research Interests:

  • Data Assimilation
  • Applied Nonlinear Filtering
  • Statistical Learning
  • Weather Forecasting
  • Calibration, Skill Scores and Reliability
  • Economical Applications of Forecasts
  • Ensemble Forecasts
  • Random Dynamical Systems
  • Fluctuation Theorems In Fluid Dynamics

Postdoctoral & graduate student supervision

  • Noeleene Mallia Validation and statistical assessment of data assimilation algorithms

Other interests (keeps changing)

  • calligraphy, history, model airplanes, photography, and dinghy sailing

Recent Publications:

Publications for j.broecker@reading.ac.uk

Jump to: 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008
Number of items: 26.


Broecker, J. (2018) Assessing the reliability of ensemble forecasting systems under serial dependence. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3379 (In Press)

Bröcker, J. (2018) What is the correct cost functional for variational data assimilation? Climate Dynamics. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4146-y


Bröcker, J. and Del Magno, G. (2017) Asymptotic stability of the optimal filter for random chaotic maps. Nonlinearity, 30 (5). pp. 1809-1833. ISSN 1361-6544 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6544/aa639c

Bröcker, J. (2017) Existence and uniqueness for four-dimensional variational data assimilation in discrete time. SIAM Journal of Applied Dynamical Systems, 16 (1). pp. 361-374. ISSN 1536-0040 doi: https://doi.org/10.1137/16M1068918


Mallia-Parfitt, N. and Broecker, J. (2016) Assessing the performance of data assimilation algorithms which employ linear error feedback. Chaos, 26 (10). 103109. ISSN 1089-7682 doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4965029


Siegert, S., Broecker, J. and Kantz, H. (2015) Skill of data-based predictions versus dynamical models. In: Chavez, M., Ghil, M. and Urrutia-Fucugauchi, J. (eds.) Extreme Events — Observations, Modeling, and Economics. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, pp. 35-50. ISBN 9781119157014


Messner, J. W., Zeileis, A., Broecker, J. and Mayr, G. J. (2014) Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression. Wind Energy, 17 (11). pp. 1753-1766. ISSN 1099-1824 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/we.1666

Broecker, J. (2014) Assessing the performance of dynamical trajectory estimates. Physical Review E, 89 (6). 062919. ISSN 1550-2376 doi: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.89.062919

Broecker, J. (2014) Resolution and discrimination - two sides of the same coin. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (689). pp. 1277-1282. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2434


Ho, C. K., Hawkins, E., Shaffrey, L., Broecker, J., Hermanson, L., Murphy, J. M., Smith, D. M. and Eade, R. (2013) Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion. Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (21). pp. 5770-5775. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL057630

Gundermann, J., Kantz, H. and Broecker, J. (2013) Crooks' fluctuation theorem for a process on a two dimensional fluid field. Physical Review Letters, 110 (23). 234502. ISSN 0031-9007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.110.234502


Broecker, J. (2012) Evaluating raw ensembles with the continuous ranked probability score. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138 (667). pp. 1611-1617. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1891

Broecker, J. and Szendro, I. G. (2012) Sensitivity and out-of-sample error in continuous time data assimilation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138 (664). pp. 785-801. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.940

Broecker, J. (2012) Estimating reliability and resolution of probability forecasts through decomposition of the empirical score. Climate Dynamics, 39 (3-4). pp. 655-667. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1191-1

Siegert, S., Broecker, J. and Kantz, H. (2012) Rank histograms of stratified Monte-Carlo ensembles. Monthly Weather Review, 140 (12). pp. 1558-1571. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00302.1


Bröcker, J., Siegert, S. and Kantz, H. (2011) Comment on ``Conditional Exceedance Probabilities''. Monthly Weather Review, 139 (10). pp. 3322-3324. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2011MWR3658.1

Siegert, S., Broecker, J. and Kantz, H. (2011) Predicting outliers in ensemble forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137 (660). pp. 1887-1897. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.868

Broecker, J. (2011) Probability forecasts. In: Jolliffe, I.T. and Stephenson, D. B. (eds.) Forecast verification : a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science. 2nd ed. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, pp. 119-139. ISBN 9780470660713

Broecker, J. and Kantz, H. (2011) The concept of exchangeability in ensemble forecasting. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 18 (1). pp. 1-5. ISSN 1023-5809 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-18-1-2011


Broecker, J. (2010) On variational data assimilation in continuous time. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 136 (652). pp. 1906-1919. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.695

Broecker, J. (2010) Regularized logistic models for probabilistic forecasting and diagnostics. Monthly Weather Review, 138 (2). pp. 592-604. ISSN 0027-0644 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009MWR3126.1


Broecker, J., Engster, D. and Parlitz, U. (2009) Probabilistic evaluation of time series models : a comparison of several approaches. Chaos, 19 (4). ISSN 1089-7682

Broecker, J. (2009) Reliability, sufficiency, and the decomposition of proper scores. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 135 (643). 1512 - 1519. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.456


Broecker, J. and Smith, L. A. (2008) From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 60 (4). pp. 663-678. ISSN 1600-0870 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00333.x

Broecker, J. (2008) On reliability analysis of multi-categorical forecasts. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 15 (4). pp. 661-673. ISSN 1023-5809 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-15-661-2008

Hallerberg, S., Broecker, J. and Kantz, H. (2008) Prediction of extreme events. In: Donner, R. V. and Barbosa, S. M. (eds.) Nonlinear time series analysis in the geosciences : applications in climatology, geodynamics, and solar-terrestrial physics. Lecture notes in earth sciences, 112. Springer, Berlin ; London, pp. 35-59. ISBN 9783540789376

This list was generated on Thu Sep 20 02:12:28 2018 UTC.


Office: JJ Thompson 219 Met 3L52

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