The global-scale impacts of climate change: QUEST-GSI

Work Package I6: Terrestrial biodiversity

Aim

To predict the impacts of climate and land-use scenarios on terrestrial primary productivity and species distributions.

Description

WP-I6 will concentrate on simulating the effects of climate and land use change on terrestrial productivity (NPP) and plant functional types. Specifically, WP-I6 will:

• Use the IMOGEN-JULES framework to simulate NPP and plant functional types, for a wider range of emissions and climate scenarios than represented in the QUMP simulations (CEH Wallingford);
• Assess a range of indicators to link biodiversity and climate change and place within the IMOGEN-JULES system. Predict changes in biodiversity characterized by plant functional types and specific ecosystems (at regional and global scales) as a consequence of changes in land use and climate induced variation in NPP. Where applicable we will make use of regional biodiversity monitoring networks (e.g. ECN and ALTERNet). (CEH Wallingford );
• Use the HadCM3 QUMP climate model simulations to simulate directly Net Primary Productivity (NPP), including the biophysical feedbacks with climate (Hadley Centre);
• Compare the simulated changes in NPP using the coupled HadCM3-QUMP simulations and the pattern-scaled IMOGEN-JULES simulations.

The JULES model is being enhanced in the QUERCC project, and the revised version will be used in this proposal.