Knowledge Exchange

Industry Partnered MSc Projects 2011

This year five different companies were involved in MSc projects. Our students have focussed on research questions that will help with industry decision making in relation to weather information and processes.

In early July, students presented their project results to a range of different companies from reinsurers, catastrophe modellers and banks to energy companies and weather forecast and data providers. More details of the talks can be found here.

Met Exchanges - Autumn Newsletter 2010

In this issue:

• Sting Jets
• The impact of snow on the monsoon
• Can we predict European climate change on local scales?
• Rainfall Data - filling in the gaps
• Cold winters and solar activity

Sting jets:

This work has been carried out by members of the Mesoscale Group and is related to the publication:

Sting jets in simulations of a real cyclone by two mesoscale models
O. Martinez-Alvarado, F. Weidle, and S. L. Gray (2010), Monthly Weather Review, 138, 4054-4075.

Work continues by the group to develop and analyse a climatology of sting jet events using carefully developed diagnostics.

The impact of snow on the monsoon:

This work has been carried out by members of the Tropical Group and is related to the publication:

Using idealized snow forcing to test teleconnections with the Indian summer monsoon in the Hadley Centre GCM
Andrew Turner and Julia Slingo,Climate Dynamics, in press

Can we predict European climate change on local scales?:

This work has been carried out by Tim Woollings and is related to the publication:

Dynamical influences on European climate: An uncertain future
T. Woollings (2010), Phil. Trans. A, 368, 3733-3756

Rainfall data - filling in the gaps:

This work has been carried out by members of the TAMSAT Group in Reading and is related to the publication:
Geostatistical Analysis of Rainfall,
David I. F. Grimes and Eulogio Pardo-Igúzquiza (2010), Geographical Analysis, 42, 136-160

Using Satellite Imagery to Predict the Risk of Famine
In Europe, rainfall is usually measured by a combination of raingauge and radar. In most of Africa these measurements are too sparsely distributed to provide useful coverage. An alternative is to provide daily estimates of rainfall from satellite imagery. These can be available in more-or-less real time and with full area coverage even for the most inhospitable and sparsely populated regions. One potentially important application of such estimates is in the prediction of crop yields at the end of the growing season, thus providing forewarning of possible food shortages. A valuable extension to this approach is now being tested in which the satellite imagery is used to provide, not just a single daily rainfall value for each satellite pixel but an ensemble of possiblevalues. By feeding the ensemble through a crop forecasting model, the probability of a range of possible crop yields can be computed. Thus the risk of food shortage may be quantified. The same technique can be used with seasonal rainfall forecasts, so that an initial estimate of the risk of food shortage can be provided at the time when crops are planted.

Cold winters and solar activity:

This work has been carried out by members of the department and is related to the publication:
Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?
M. Lockwood, R.G. Harrison , T. Woollings, and S.K. Solanki (2010), Environmental Research Letters, 5,024001

Further research papers on a similar topic:
Woollings, T., Lockwood, M., Masato, G., Bell, C. and Gray, L. (2010)
Enhanced signature of solar variability in Eurasian winter climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 37 . L20805. ISSN 0094-8276

Lockwood, M., Bell, C., Woollings, T., Harrison, R. G., Gray, L. J. and Haigh, J. D. (2010)
Top-down solar modulation of climate: evidence for centennial-scale change. Environmental Research Letters, 5 (3). 034008. ISSN 1748-9326

Lockwood, M. (2010)
Solar change and climate: an update in the light of the current exceptional solar minimum. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 466 (2114). pp. 303-329. ISSN 1364-5021